Mariners OF Jarred Kelenic Is Tearing Up Triple-A Again, But Does It Matter?
Jarred Kelenic has played 14 games down in Triple-A Tacoma since being demoted on May 13. Making his first appearance with the Rainiers four days later, the former top prospect is slashing .321/.367/.643 with four home runs and a wRC+ of 145 thus far.
Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto has routinely used the analogy of extending a "life raft" to some of the organization's floundering youngsters. Essentially, Seattle refuses to be in the business of forcing players like Kelenic to sink or swim—mostly sink—at the major league level, which isn't as common as it probably should be in MLB. Pressing the issue only risks further damage to the player and, by extension, the franchise as well.
Dipoto and his staff simply want Kelenic to come up for air and exhale. Up to this point, it appears he has.
After struggling to the tune of a .140/.219/.291 slash line and a 37.5 percent strikeout rate with the big league club this year, Kelenic has recorded a hit in all but three of the games he's played in Tacoma. As of June 2, he's running a hitting streak of seven games and has an extra-base hit in each of his last four.
Jarred Kelenic blasts a leadoff HR. pic.twitter.com/0pYWojtmfB
— Mariners Minors (@MiLBMariners) June 2, 2022
But frankly, while these numbers are certainly a welcome sight, they don't necessarily indicate whether or not Kelenic is swimming back to shore or merely keeping his head above water. After all, he posted nearly identical numbers following his demotion to Triple-A last summer, hitting .306/.386/.622 in 24 games. Once he was called back up, he reverted back to his struggles before breaking out in the month of September, which was, of course, short-lived.
Nothing he has done over the past two weeks suggests he's in much of a different place than he was a year ago. Nevertheless, the fact he hasn't continued to drown in his recent woes is a positive sign.
It should be mentioned, however, that Kelenic's current stat line is not perfect by any stretch of the imagination. Despite the high batting average and on-base percentage he's currently flashing, his swing and miss issues have evidently followed him down to Tacoma. So far, he's struck out on 23 occasions in 60 plate appearances, or 38.3 percent of the time. Furthermore, six of those strikeouts have come within his last two games, including a golden sombrero against Reno on Tuesday.
This reinforces the notion that Kelenic's road back to the big leagues should be an extensive one. There are still glaring holes in his approach that need to be worked through and only time—and patience—will lead to the goal both he and the organization are striving towards.
Although the Mariners currently find themselves in fourth place in the AL West at a record of 21-29, it is still far too early for them to forfeit at-bats for the sake of development. Therefore, they simply cannot give Kelenic the playing time he requires to figure things out. The next time he's called up to the majors, Seattle will have to be sure he's made enough progress to actively contribute. Otherwise, it would be doing both a disservice to him and the team.
If that means he has to spend the rest of the year in Tacoma, so be it. And no, that would not solidify him as a "bust."
Bear in mind that Kelenic is still very, very young—even for the level he's currently playing at. As Luke Arkins of Prospect Insider pointed out, only 21 players currently in Triple-A are younger than the 22-year old Kelenic.
Per FanGraphs, 581 minor-league players have at least 10 plate appearances at AAA this year.
— Luke Arkins (@luke_arkins) June 1, 2022
Only 21 are younger than Jarred Kelenic.#Mariners
At the end of the day, it doesn't matter how many hits Kelenic collects or how many home runs he crushes over the Cheney Stadium walls. Triple-A numbers are more or less meaningless and very rarely translate to big league success, particularly in a situation like Kelenic's.
What's truly important for Kelenic are the things only he and the Mariners can fully understand: his mechanics, his mentality, etc. None of this can be gleaned from a box score or a 20-second video on Twitter.
We will only really know whether or not he's ready for major league competition again when Seattle says so.
