Mariners Seeing Resurgence From Cal Raleigh
Cal Raleigh made his major league debut for the Mariners on July 11, 2021. Nearly 11 months later, Raleigh has had varying success; in his rookie season, he posted a 47 wRC+ with a .180/.223/.309 slash line. But with plus defense, he was able to accumulate 0.1 fWAR through 47 games.
The 2022 season, meanwhile, has really been a tale of two different stories. Upon being optioned down on April 28, Raleigh was hitting .083/.214/.208 with a wRC+ of 1. Although it was only 28 plate appearances, he only had two hits and some very alarming peripherals to suggest his struggles were warranted.
Prior to being sent down, Raleigh had a chase rate of 37.8 percent (MLB average is 28.6 percent this year), a 67.6 percent zone contact rate (MLB average is 81.7 percent) and just one barreled ball for a slightly below-average rate of 6.7 precent (MLB average is 7.8 precent). Despite his poor plate discipline and contact numbers, he had an elite 14.3 percent walk rate, but that was surely unsustainable given these peripherals.
When Raleigh was sent down, manager Scott Servais offered extensive comments, but perhaps none more telling than this:
“Cal will be back," Servais said. "He needs to play. He’ll get an opportunity to play consistently down there, catching, and then on days he is not catching, he can DH.”
Being in Tacoma allowed Raleigh the opportunity to address his struggles at the plate while playing consistently in an environment that was not only lower stakes, but also less difficult than MLB-caliber competition.
Since being recalled on May 7, Raleigh has seen better results at the plate. In 75 plate appearances, he has a 113 wRC+, in part due to his 16.3 percent barrel rate and 75.5 percent zone contact rate. But while he is making better contact on pitches in the strike zone and, by extension, seeing better results, he is still chasing at a 34.7 percent clip with a higher strikeout rate of 32.5 percent. He is also walking less with an average walk rate of 8.4 percent.
Raleigh has also hit six home runs since being recalled, but that can be accredited to his unsustainable 26.1 percent home run to fly ball rate (MLB average is 11 percent this year). This suggests he will not continue to go yard at his current pace, so long as he does not double his fly ball rate.
Looking purely at the numbers, there really isn't much difference in Raleigh from before and after his recall besides his improved zone contact percentage and improved barrel rate. He is punishing pitches in the strike zone at a higher clip, but with similar plate discipline and chase rates.
That being said, maybe the expectations for Raleigh should not be as high given the context of the league environment for catchers. The average wRC+ for catchers this year is 86, making Raleigh’s 93 wRC+ not only palatable, but welcome.
When analyzing Raleigh’s season from a macro perspective, it seems that he should be able to continue to put up above-average catcher offensive numbers to pair with his above-average defense for the remainder of the season if his current form holds.
