Mariners Trade-a-Day: JT Brubaker
The Mariners' rotation has an issue with consistency. Aside from Logan Gilbert, Seattle's starters have all dealt with sustained periods of struggles.
Nowhere is this inconsistency felt more than when Chris Flexen takes the mound. We've seen Flexen dazzle at times, including against playoff lineups like the Rays and Astros. He's also fizzled against lesser opponents like the Orioles, Red Sox and Phillies.
Of course, Flexen isn't the only pitcher who has struggled. Staff ace Robbie Ray hasn't found much consistency inning to inning, let alone game to game. This issue hampers the Mariners' efforts to sustain winning streaks and also places an unnecessary burden on the team's bullpen, which has significantly regressed from 2021 to 2022.
We know that general manager Jerry Dipoto wants to add a starting pitcher. But he's not looking for a No. 5 arm. He has consistently stated that he wants to add an arm that "would pitch closer to the top of the rotation than the bottom."
The issue with those types of arms is that they're extremely expensive to acquire. José Berríos cost the Blue Jays two, top-100 prospects last summer. This year, there are a few options that fit that mold, with Luis Castillo and Frankie Montas likely costing Seattle something in the neighborhood of Noelvi Marte and Emerson Hancock.
That type of price is tough to swallow, particularly when it seems unlikely that 2022 will result in a deep playoff run. Both arms would return in 2023, but the pressure to win big would be immense in 2023 before either player departed in free agency. There is obviously a point where you make trades like that, but the Mariners may not be there quite yet. Perhaps the Mariners could try to find the next Castillo or Montas and save themselves some on the acquisition cost?
One name that might check some boxes is Pirates right-hander JT Brubaker. While certainly not in the same tier as the bigger names, Brubaker does possess some interesting numbers and the stuff suggests there could be another gear in his game.
Currently, Brubaker has posted a 4.70 ERA and 3.48 FIP. He misses bats, averaging 9.44 K/9 and, while his 4.34 BB/9 is high, his career mark of 3.20 leaves plenty of room for optimism.
Brubaker is a sinker/slider arm, but he does mix in a decent curve that will generate swings and misses. Thanks to the strikeouts, he's not a groundball-heavy sinkerballer, but his 43% groundball rate does help. He doesn't get much vertical movement out of his repertoire, but he does have elite horizontal movement on his sinker and four-seam fastball.
As of now, Brubaker is a good No. 4 who will miss bats but specializes in avoiding hard contact, ranking in the 77th percentile in hard-hit percentage. He's not yet the arm Dipoto craves, but there seems to be potential to get there. Brubaker won't even be arbitration-eligible until this winter and he's just 28 years old. He won't be cheap, but he's also unlikely to require the same trade cost as Montas or Castillo.
What could a deal for Brubaker look like? There were reports earlier this winter that the Pirates were looking for young starting pitching and the name Emerson Hancock was even dropped. The Mariners may prefer to keep Hancock, but it isn't a ridiculous ask from Pittsburgh. There are a lot of factors involved in such a deal, including how the Mariners feel about not only Brubaker's upside, but how they value Hancock, Levi Stoudt and Adam Macko versus how the Pirates value them.
For simplicity's sake, a Hancock-for-Brubaker deal could make a lot of sense for both sides (assuming Hancock remains healthy and pitches well). But a deal of Adam Macko and Lázaro Montes or Alberto Rodríguez could start a conversation. One thing to keep in mind: the Pirates could be interested in some of the young major leaguers on the Mariners' roster like Taylor Trammell, Kyle Lewis or Abraham Toro.
Seattle and Pittsburgh line up well in trade talks and, with Dipoto at the helm, you can't rule out a bigger deal that involves multiple big leaguers changing hands. But at the end of the day, Brubaker is an upgrade to Flexen and offers a higher floor than both Marco Gonzales and George Kirby.
