Mariners Trade-a-Day: Michael Fulmer
As the Mariners wrap up their current nine-game road trip, it would be hard to call it anything less than a success. The key to their recent winning ways has largely been their pitching.
Aside from two disappointing Robbie Ray starts, Seattle's starters have gotten deep into games and the bullpen has largely held its own, giving the Mariners a good shot to win all but one game on the road trip. But while the pitching has been much better, there isn't any reason to avoid adding talent to the group, particularly to lock down the middle-innings before handing the ball off to Paul Sewald, Diego Castillo and, hopefully soon, Ken Giles.
The expected addition of Erik Swanson in the coming days should help, but the team needs even more "mid-leverage" arms. Anthony Misiewicz has struggled. Matt Festa is prone to the long ball. Sergio Romo has been largely good but lacks the true upside Seattle needs. Thankfully for general manager Jerry Dipoto, there is never a shortage of quality middle relief arms available on the trade market, and he doesn't need to wait until the deadline to improve his bullpen right now.
One of the most interesting arms likely to be available is 2016 American League Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer. The longtime Tigers righty broke into the big leagues and quickly become one of the best young starters in MLB. Unfortunately, injuries stole the better part of two full seasons from Fulmer and he hasn't held up well enough to reclaim his spot in the rotation. But he has transitioned nicely to his bullpen role and could be a solid fit for the Mariners going forward.
Fulmer has appeared in 20 games for Detroit, posting a 2.70 ERA with 20 strikeouts and 10 walks in 20 innings pitched. Fulmer's metrics suggest he's been as good as those numbers and his 3.44 FIP suggests. He currently sits in the 81st percentile in hard-hit rate, 94th in xwOBA and xERA, 97th in barrel percentage and 96th in whiff percentage.
Fulmer has gone slider-heavy in 2022, throwing the pitch 57 percent of the time. The pitch generates a 40 percent whiff rate and he's allowed just four hits on it all year long. He'll mix in a four-seam fastball (16 percent) and a sinker (14 percent), but he's primarily a slider pitcher now.
Fulmer has the stuff of a good middle reliever and should be valued as such. He's a free agent after this year and, as a result, it isn't likely he'll cost all that much. An arm like Juan Then or Stephen Kolek might get it done for Seattle.
But ultimately, a Fulmer-for-Natanael Garabitos trade could make a lot of sense for each side. The Mariners land their middle-innings ace and the Tigers land a young flamethrower who touches 100 MPH on the radar gun and has a decent slider.
The Mariners need more probability. And while probability isn't fun, particularly in a rental trade, it's important. They will likely wait to see what they get from Swanson and Giles in the coming weeks, but adding a high-quality reliever to a good bullpen is never a bad idea.
