Should Mariners Believe in Brandon Drury Enough to Trade For Him?
Reds infielder Brandon Drury was linked to the Mariners by MLB insider Jon Morosi on Tuesday morning.
#Reds infielder Brandon Drury is the in-demand @MLB trade deadline candidate we aren't discussing enough. He's an option for the #Mariners, among others, because of his ability to cover multiple positions. Drury is on a low-cost, 1-year deal and has an .873 OPS. @MLBNetwork
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 12, 2022
Drury is having a fantastic season—much better than he has produced in parts of 7 other campaigns at the big-league level. So should the Mariners believe this can continue? Let’s take a look.
The 29-year old has played for five teams over the course of his eight-year career. In 2022, he has appeared at every position in Cincinnati's infield while mostly residing at third base. He has also played both corner outfield spots at the big league level.
Thanks to the disappointing years from Adam Frazier and Abraham Toro, Seattle has a pressing need at second base, which makes Drury an obvious fit. He would provide defensive versatility when needed and, at the very least, some right-handed thump.
Over the course of 76 games this season, Drury has turned heads with his performance at the plate. He is slashing .277/.333/.540 with 18 home runs and has been worth 2.2 WAR, per FanGraphs' standards.
All of these marks would be career-highs for him by a long shot. Having a career year in your age 29 season is not something to always believe in, but there are plenty of reasons to buy the sustainability of what Drury is doing.
When looking at his advanced numbers, the Oregon native has produced in many categories this season. His xwOBA sits in the 68th percentile and his xSLG ranks in the 76th, indicating that his expected results are still very high.
Drury has found the most consistency in his barrel percentage this season, making perfect contact at a personal-best clip of 12.3 percent. Interestingly, that is basically the only thing that has statistically changed for him since last season.
In 2021, Drury had the exact same average exit velocity as he does this year, as well as very similar hard-hit and strikeout percentages. So what is the difference?
According to his Baseball Savant page, Drury is simply hitting the ball hard with consistency this season. As you can see by his spray chart, he is driving the ball well to all parts of the field with regularity—likely helping his expected numbers.
In past seasons, he has hit the ball with far less authority at higher launch angles or lower launch angles. This has varied over the course of his career, but much of his success this season is likely due to optimizing his ability to hit the ball hard at a launch angle that is more conducive to missing gloves.
Averaging an 89.7 MPH exit velocity at a 13.2-degree launch angle has been a good formula for him so far this season. His launch angle is up almost two degrees from last season.
Drury may be due for some regression, but this product seems sustainable for the remainder of the year.
Drury would be a good add for a Seattle club looking to lengthen its lineup and bolster its infield. Under contract through the end of this season, he would be a rental and would likely be in the price range Seattle would be willing to spend.
Don’t be surprised if we see Drury catching a flight to the Pacific Northwest sooner rather than later.
