ANALYSIS: Fan Projections Create Interesting Offseason For Seattle Mariners
The 2025 offseason will be one of the most important ones in the recent history of the Seattle Mariners.
Despite boasting the best rotation in baseball and having a 10-game lead in the American League West in mid-June, the Mariners missed out on the postseason for the 22nd time in 23 years. To add some extra salt to the wound, the Houston Astros clinched the American League West in a win against Seattle.
The Mariners have several years of team control left on their starting rotation and outfield core. They also have one of the best farm systems in all of baseball.
That's why it's so imperative for Seattle to improve this offseason. If the Mariners don't add to the team and squander another year with a solid core of players, then there's a serious possibility that Seattle looks for new management in the front office and starts another rebuild. Or at least considers re-tooling their roster.
Many members of the media are aware of the importance of this offseason. There's been several podcasts and articles exploring potential trade targets and free agents for Seattle to target in the offseason.
One fan on "X" (formerly known as Twitter) put together and entire offseason plan for the Mariners.
A fan with the handle @thejagepage on "X" mocked several offseason moves that would give the team a drastically different lineup in 2025.
These were the following moves Jage suggested:
1. Mariners receive: Alec Bohm, Rafael Marchan; Philadelphia Phillies receive: Tai Peete, Logan Evans, Trent Thornton, Josh Rojas.
2. Mariners receive: Brandon Lowe, Garrett Cleavinger; Tampa Bay Rays receive: Harry Ford, Luis Curvelo, Mitch Garver, $3.5 million cash.
3. Mariners re-sign Justin Turner (one-year, $4 million with PA incentives).
Here's how the Mariners lineups would shake out under Jage's projections:
Against right-handed pitching: Victor Robles, right field; Julio Rodriguez, center field; Brandon Lowe, second base; Cal Raleigh, catcher; Randy Arozarena, left field; Luke Raley, designated hitter; Bohm, third base; Turner, first base, JP Crawford, shortstop.
Against left-handed pitching: Robles, right field; Rodriguez, center field; Bohm, third base; Arozarena, left field; Lowe, designated hitter; Raleigh, catcher; Turner, first base; Crawford, shortstop; Ryan Bliss, second base.
Marchan would fill in at back-up catcher during Raleigh's off-days.
#Mariners starting lineups against RHP and LHP. pic.twitter.com/4FwojJDBBY
— Jage (@thejagepage) October 18, 2024
The bullpen would be Andres Munoz, Gregory Santos, Collin Snider, Austin Voth, Troy Taylor, JT Chargois, Gabe Speier and Cleavinger.
First off, this is one of the most detailed offseason plans I've seen so far. Jage went as far as to project the payroll total as approximately $154.5 million against a budget of $155 million. Which is likely around what Seattle's actual payroll will be next season.
The second thing is that with these deals, the Mariners will get coverage at second base and third base for two years with Lowe and Bohm, respectively. Lowe has two club options on his deal for 2025 and 2026. Bohm is up for his third arbitration year in 2026 and before becoming a free agent.
Lowe and Bohm are both offensive upgrades at second and third base. Acquiring them would also allow the Mariners more than a one-year stopgap while bringing up and preparing prospects.
Speaking of prospects, that's the first problem to point to with these moves. The cost is steep.
Seattle seemed unwilling or at least hesitant to let go of one of their top prospects at the trade deadline. There's a chance that missing out on the postseason helped the Mariners loosen their grip on their top minor leaguers. But even so, letting go of their top pitching prospect in Evans and a top-four prospect Ford is a lot. Peete is another top prospect (ranked No. 11 according to MLB Pipeline).
Even if Seattle is willing to depart with its top prospects, letting go of three top-11 prospects is a lot without getting a superstar.
Losing Ford would especially hurt, especially with Raleigh without a long-term deal.
There's also the issue of financial flexibility at the trade deadline. With just under $500,000 to work with in this hypothetical budget, there would be little opportunity for the Mariners to improve at the trade deadline if they need to make a move. Unless President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto gets the OK from owner/chairman John Stanton to go over budget, then any deal Seattle makes during the season or the deadline would be either be a salary dump or one-to-one swap financially.
But if this is the kind of offseason that the Mariners have, then it should be considered a win on all fronts.
Seattle would improve all positions of need while maintaining its starting pitching and there's an opportunity in this scenario for Bliss or Cole Young to get more reps at second base.
Will the Mariners be this aggressive? Most likely not. But this is the kind of avenue that Seattle could pursue. If it wants to.
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