ANALYSIS: How a Move to First Base Would Affect Possible Seattle Mariners Target
The Seattle Mariners are entering December with just one major league addition to speak of in the offseason. The team brought former draft pick and Spokane, Wash., native Austin Shenton back to the Pacific Northwest from the Tampa Bay Rays in return for cash considerations on Nov. 19.
Mariners President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto and General Manager Justin Hollander have both said the infield is the main group that the club needs to improve in the offseason. And with a reported $16 million to spend, Seattle will likely have to look to the trade market to improve.
The MLB Winter Meetings are taking place from Dec. 9-12 in Dallas. Many trades will be discussed kicked around with all 30 major league teams being present at the multi-day event.
One player that will likely be shopped around is multi-time Platinum Glove Award winner and St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado.
Arenado is reportedly looking for an exit from St. Louis as the 33 year-old looks to finish the tail end of his career with a contender. The eight-time All-Star is still an effective hitter and batted .272 with 16 home runs and 71 RBIs in 2024.
Play No. 86 of 2024: Nolan Arenado lines a walk-off grand slam! pic.twitter.com/45GhPyGMdR
— MLB (@MLB) November 30, 2024
And per a report from the Athletic's Katie Woo on Nov. 26, Arenado is willing to move to first base, which could make a potential deal to acquire him much more palatable for the Mariners.
Arenado is set to earn $21 million in 2025, $16 million in 2026 and $15 million in 2027, per Spotrac. His salary and slightly advanced age is likely to create some hangups in any deal involving him.
If Seattle were to trade for him, Arenado would be the highest-paid position player on the team in 2025. His salary for next season is also $5 million more than what the team currently has available.
The most likely avenue for Arenado coming over to the Pacific Northwest would have to be a trade that would include several prospects and a high-earning Mariners player, such as Mitch Haniger ($17.5 million), Luis Castillo ($24.15 million) or Mitch Garver ($12.5 million).
But his declining salary over 2026 and 2027 and his willingness to move to first base could make him exactly the kind of player that would benefit Seattle.
Arenado's glove, even after Year 12 in the majors, is still elite. The 10-time Gold Glover was named a finalist for the award again for 2024 and had 10 outs above average. That stat places him in the 95th percentile in the league, per Baseball Savant.
Arenado could man the hot corner for 2025 while moving over to a first base/platoon role with Luke Raley in 2026 and 2027. This would give the team coverage at both positions. It would also free up third for a top prospect like Colt Emerson, Ben Williamson or Michael Arroyo when they're ready to be called up.
Colt Emerson hammers his 5th double in 2 games. Unreal. pic.twitter.com/SU1Id8fdaC
— Mariners Minors (@MiLBMariners) October 9, 2024
Depending on which player the Mariners include in the hypothetical deal, they would have enough money to land Carlos Santana or Justin Turner. Signing two players players over 33 as your 2025 solutions wouldn't be ideal, but a combo of Arenado/Raley/Turner or Arenado/Raley/Santana on the corners would still be effective.
Arenado could also be the "veteran" presence that Dipoto has said the team is looking for. He doesn't have the playoff acumen of Turner, but he's been one of the well-rounded players in the league for over a decade. He could be a valuable tutor for prospects like Cole Young or Emerson when they make their major league debuts.
Depending on what the Cardinals' asking price is for Arenado, there might be too many factors for Seattle to make that move. Too many top prospects, the deal's off. If the Mariners can't offload another eight-figure salary, deal's off.
But if everything aligns for Seattle, Arenado's benefits to the club would outweigh the negatives. If the Mariners have the right deal in place for the veteran, it would be hard to justify not pulling the trigger.
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