ANALYSIS: Seattle Mariners Offseason Would Be a Success By Acquiring Two Players
The Seattle Mariners' upcoming offseason is going to be one of the most important ones in recent franchise memory.
The Mariners in 2024 missed the playoffs for the 22nd time in 23 years. And for the fourth consecutive year, their postseason fate was decided during the final week.
Seattle President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto signed a one-year contract extension to keep him with the Mariners through at least next season. Dipoto has one playoff berth to his name in nine years since joining the front office.
Maybe it's for that reason that team owner/chairman John Stanton has reportedly given Dipoto a higher payroll to work with in the offseason. But if that's the case, it makes it all the more frustrating for fans of the team to see Stanton say the Seattle isn't planning to target big-name, big-money free agents for 2025.
That's not abnormal for the Mariners. In fact it's become typical at this point. But one would think having the best catcher (Cal Raleigh) and best starting pitching rotation in baseball along with one of the game's brightest young stars (Julio Rodriguez) would encourage the team to go after superstars and not waste that core.
Nonetheless, it's unlikely Seattle will be in the Juan Soto sweepstakes. This is the same team that didn't even submit an offer to Shohei Ohtani.
There's also not a lot of true superstars on the trade market that the Mariners could go after. At least not without decimating a farm system that's considered one of the best in the sport.
On Oct. 11, I wrote a column about three players Seattle should target: Yandy Diaz, Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso. Those were players I think the Mariners should be going after.
However, there are two names that likely fit the M's just as well or better.
The total funds and package to get both players wouldn't be cheap. But it also wouldn't be too steep.
Josh Naylor, first base, (Cleveland Guardians)
There's been smoke about a Naylor to Seattle move for almost a year. The Mariners were reported to be interested in acquiring the power-hitting first baseman in the 2023-24 offseason. Naylor is just 27 years-old and is coming off an All-Star year where he hit .243 with 31 home runs and 108 RBIs.
Josh Naylor comes through!#ForTheLand | #GuardsBall pic.twitter.com/Cq5hUUXZse
— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) October 19, 2024
Naylor is in the last season of his contract with the Guardians. It would likely take a lot less to bring him to Seattle compared to last year.
Naylor's home runs and RBIs were both single-season career highs. But his batting average did dip from a .308 mark in 2023.
Naylor is estimated to earn $14.2 million in arbitration according to Spotrac.
Even if he is just a one-year rental, his power and consistent contact would be an instant boost to a lineup that often left runners stranded in 2024.
Wily Adames, shortstop, (Milwaukee Brewers)
The Mariners already have a starting shortstop in team captain JP Crawford. And I don't expect them to move on from him before the 2025 season.
Adames is coming off the best offensive season of his career. He played 161 games and hit .251 with 32 home runs and 112 RBIs while stealing 21 bases. His homers, RBIs and steals were all single-season career highs.
It's Willy Adames' 29th birthday, so he had to celebrate with his 29th home run of the season. 🥳
— MLB (@MLB) September 2, 2024
He has homered in FIVE STRAIGHT games! pic.twitter.com/EELWk2GAHz
Instead of spending significant money on Alex Bregman, who's projected to earn $30 million a year on (at least) a five-year contract according to Spotrac, Seattle can save some money on signing Adames and playing him at third base or second. Adames is projected for a six-year, $152.2 million deal according to Spotrac. That's roughly $5 million a year cheaper than Bregman.
Adames hasn't played any other position aside from shortstop since playing 10 games at second base with the Tampa Bay Rays in his rookie season in 2018.
Adames isn't the cleanest defender. He made 20 errors last season in 547 chances (.963). But Mariners infield coach Perry Hill has been able to coach a lot of players in multiple positions. He helped turn Josh Rojas into a Gold Glove-caliber defender at third base this season. Adames is a seven-year pro and Hill is an experienced and respected coach. Adames' defense in a new position likely won't be a major concern.
Off the bat, there is the issue that Adames has options in free agency. Including ones where he can continue to play shortstop. He has been tied to the Los Angeles Dodgers (who need a shortstop) for months. And as we saw last year, the Dodgers aren't afraid to drop big-money on free agents. This is the same team that spent a record $1 billion on free agents last season.
If Adames does go to a team where he has to change positions, the New York Yankees are an option. The Yankees will have to find a second baseman with Gleyber Torres hitting free agency. And they have funds to bring Adames to the Bronx.
Seattle would need the a great pitch to get Adames to choose the Pacific Northwest over Los Angeles or New York.
That's why it would be imperative for the Mariners to acquire Naylor as soon as possible. You have to get at least one of them.
Outlook
The Mariners would have third and first base solved with the additions of Adames and Naylor. Second base is still a question mark, but at this point I'm of the opinion it would be better to let Ryan Bliss or Cole Young start at second rather than go with another stop gap option.
Adames and Naylor would add at least 45-50 home runs to the Seattle lineup and over 200 RBIs.
If the Mariners do manage to get both, or players of their caliber, the offseason would be a resounding success. There aren't a whole lot of scenarios where Seattle can add two high-tier bats without breaking the bank.
And it would likely be enough to maybe give Mariners fans hope for 2025.
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