FINAL GRADES: Logan Gilbert Has Become The Undisputed Seattle Mariners Ace
Over the last two weeks, we've talked about and individually graded Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller — four of the Seattle Mariners' five starting pitchers.
We saved the Mariners' best regular starter from 2024 for last in Logan Gilbert.
The fourth-year Stetson College product was the crown jewel of the best starting rotation in baseball and was awarded with his first All-Star selection. He also made the final start of the season on Sept. 29 against the Oakland Athletics.
Gilbert had a career-best year and joined the 200-inning/200-strikeout club for the first time since debuting in 2021.
Gilbert's season was so good that it raised the question if he's almost too good of a pitcher for Seattle to keep.
Logan Gilbert by the numbers
Games started: 33
Pitching stats: 3.23 ERA, 33 appearances (33 starts), 9-12 record, 208.2 innings pitched, 220 strikeouts, 0.89 WHIP, 22 QS, .196 opp. BA, 2.8 WAR
Advanced pitching stats: 3.10 xERA, .225 xBA, 29.9% Chase, 31.7% Whiff, 3.27 FIP, 9.29 K/9, 73.2% LOB
What I liked
There wasn't a whole lot not to like about Gilbert's season.
And the Mariners recognized Gilbert's performance.
Despite him not officially having the top spot in the rotation, Seattle changed up its rotation several times in the season. They did this to make sure Gilbert would get his usually rest while still being available for crucial series.
Gilbert has a big pitch arsenal. And all of them are effective. He has a four-seamer, slider, cutter, splitter, curveball and sinker.
Gilbert's fastball peaked over 100 miles an hour. Opposing batters had a sub-.250 average in five of his six pitches.
Gilbert's splitter was among the most devastating throws in the league. Batters hit just .101 off it according to Baseball Savant. He threw it 13.4% of the time. His curve wasn't too far behind and opponents averaged just .181 against it. Gilbert threw the curveball 11.8% of the time.
Logan Gilbert, Vicious 87mph Splitter. 😤
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 29, 2024
7th K thru 5...and 🤫 pic.twitter.com/EWpQ0sAouL
Gilbert has one of the best analytical minds on the staff when it comes to pitching mechanics, grips, selection, etc.
Gilbert and catcher Cal Raleigh's communication on the mound led to some of the best starts of the season for Seattle.
There were several outings when hitters figured out Gilbert's approach early on. But most of the time the Stetson College product responded and found a way to close out his starts in six or seven innings.
In Gilbert's 33 starts, he didn't make it to the sixth inning in just three of them.
Because Gilbert did tend to have long outings, even in games where he struggled, his ERA was inflated in a couple months. He had a 4.66 ERA in May and a 4.60 ERA in July.
But Gilbert also posted monthly ERA totals of 2.18 in April, 1.51 in June, 3.00 in August and 3.89 in September.
Best game
Gilbert's best game might be harder to figure out than any other player covered so far in our final grades series.
Gilbert had seven starts of nine or more strikeouts and six starts where he made it to or through the eighth inning. It doesn't help that Gilbert had some of the worst run support of any starting pitcher in the league, which led to a lot of quality starts going to waste.
But maybe the best all-around game the fourth-year hurler had was on June 16 in a 5-0 win against the Texas Rangers.
Gilbert threw 72 strikes out of 101 pitches in eight innings of work against the Rangers. He struck out nine batters and allowed just two hits without giving up a free base.
Logan Gilbert, 97mph ⛽️
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 16, 2024
8th K pic.twitter.com/lsgyvFhM9m
Gilbert had an ERA of 3.19 going into that game. He dropped it to 2.93 by the end of it.
Future prospects
There's no doubt that Gilbert is the Mariners' No. 1 hurler. Even though Castillo technically played in that spot, there's no question Gilbert is the top guy.
Because of that reason, it would benefit Seattle to secure Gilbert up to a long-term extension as soon as possible.
Gilbert is up for his second year of arbitration in 2025 and is projected to make $8.3 million according to Spotrac.
Gilbert and the Mariners reportedly haven't had serious discussions on a long-term extension. Gilbert is contracted with Seattle through 2027, so the team doesn't technically have to do anything for at least two more years.
But Gilbert is going to get more and more expensive year-to-year. There's been rumors and speculation of the Mariners possibly trading a starting pitcher this offseason to get quality bats in the lineup.
Gilbert would theoretically make the most sense to trade. Barring a Cy Young season, his value on the trade market won't get much better than it is right now. The longer Seattle waits to extend him, the more expensive he'll be. Both in arbitration and his eventual big-money deal. The longer the team waits to trade him, the more leverage they'll lose in the market.
But there's four other great-to-elite pitchers to choose from if the Mariners do move an arm for a bat.
Gilbert, despite being so young into his career, is already a potential Cy Young candidate for 2025 and would be the No. 1 starter on the majority of teams in the league.
The best option moving forward for the team is to extend Gilbert as soon as possible and let him play out the deal as Seattle's top pitcher.
Final grade: A
A: Gilbert is the fifth player and second starting pitcher to earn an "A" grade in our final grade series.
If there's one criticism that can be levied against Gilbert, it's that sometime it took too long for him to and Raleigh to move off a gameplan when it wasn't working.
Gilbert has two of the most effective off-speed throws in the league and has upper-90 velocity on his fastball. His height and length (6-foot-7), gives him a release closer to the plate than most starting pitchers.
With all of that considered, Gilbert can (and has) adjusted his approach in several instances. No hurler is going to be perfect.
Gilbert is still just four years deep into his career. More experience will likely help him recognize more scenarios when he has to move off his original approach.
But even that is nit-picking.
Gilbert has very real Cy Young potential. If he got even one run more of run support per start, his losing record would be almost completely flipped and the Mariners would be in the playoffs.
If Seattle does add more offense and the team can bounce back in 2025, there's a very real chance a Cy Young season could be on the horizon for Gilbert.
Related Stories on Seattle Mariners
FINAL GRADES ON BRYCE MILLER: The Seattle Mariners second-year starter Bryce Miller might have taken a step into the top tier of starting pitchers in the league. CLICK HERE
FINAL GRADES ON LUIS CASTILLO: Although three-time All-Star hurler Luis Castillo didn't always look like the Seattle Mariners No. 1 starter, his ability and veteran presence still provided a huge boost to the team. CLICK HERE
FINAL GRADES ON BRYAN WOO: Bryan Woo's growth was a massive factor in the Seattle Mariners having the best starting rotation in baseball this season. CLICK HERE
Follow Seattle Mariners on SI on social media
Continue to follow our Inside the Mariners coverage on social media by liking us on Facebook and by following Teren Kowatsch and Brady Farkas on "X" @Teren_Kowatsch and @wdevradiobrady. You can subscribe to the "Refuse to Lose" podcast by clicking HERE.
