Inside The Mariners

ANALYSIS: How 'Bad' Has Julio Rodriguez Actually Been This Season?

Seattle Mariners franchise cornerstone Julio Rodriguez has received a lot of flack on social media the last week; But a lot of those criticisms may be unfounded.

Teren Kowatsch

Seattle Mariners center fielder Julio Rodriguez reacts after hitting a double during a game against the New York Yankees on Tuesday at T-Mobile Park.
Seattle Mariners center fielder Julio Rodriguez reacts after hitting a double during a game against the New York Yankees on Tuesday at T-Mobile Park. / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images
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SEATTLE — The Seattle Mariners wrapped up a nine-game homestead with a 3-2 win against the New York Yankees on Thursday. The win gave the Mariners a winning record (5-4) during its last multi-series home stretch of the season.

But for a lot of Thursday, it wasn't the win fans on social media were talking about. It was the loss from the day before. Specifically one play that contributed to the loss.

Seattle franchise star Julio Rodriguez was standing at third with no outs in the bottom of the 10th inning with his team down by the eventual final of 2-1.

Rodriguez took himself off third base to avoid a bat that flew toward his head, out of the hands of his teammate Randy Arozarena when the latter swung during his at-bat.

Arozarena struck out on that play and Rodriguez, who said in a postgame interview that he thought it would be a dead play, was tagged out at third.

This was one inning after Rodriguez struck out with the game-tying run at first.

Some "fans" on social media were quick to bash Rodriguez for the play. Some said it was a sign of his lack of awareness in clutch situations, others said he wasn't playing up to his contract and others event went as far as to attack Rodriguez personally by saying he was more concerned with looking good than playing baseball.

It's not unusual for fans to overreact to bad plays with some comments that are, frankly, just absurd and go too far. And that was the case again on Wednesday with Rodriguez's snafu. But the negative reaction seemed to be exacerbated with the Mariners having just 10 games left in the season and still trying to make the playoffs.

But it also spawned an interesting conversation about whether or not Rodriguez is actually "clutch," and if he actually is playing up to his contract.

In terms of whether or not Rodriguez is playing up to the value of his 12-year, $290 million contract (getting paid $11.9 million this season), he objectively is.

According to an article from Bleacher Report (based on several metrics from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference), one WAR (wins above replacement) is worth approximately $8 million. Rodriguez has a 3.0 WAR this season according to FanGraphs. That's 2.8 less than his projected 5.8 total for the 2024 season according to the same website. But, according to value, Rodriguez is playing like a $24 million a year player this season while making just less than half of that.

Rodriguez isn't scheduled to make more than $18 million in any year of his contract, according to Spotrac. Rodriguez is also one of just seven center fielders to have a 15-or-more WAR through his first three seasons in MLB history. That means, if he was paid based strictly on the value of his WAR, he would have career earnings of $120 million already. He's earned $34.39 million in his career, also according to Spotrac.

Rodriguez has been a near-$90 million steal so far for the Mariners. Even in 2024, his worst season, he's outperforming his contract.

Now as for whether or not Rodriguez is "clutch" — that's not so easy to pin down. There's so many situations that can be considered "clutch" plays during a game.

But according to a tweet from @EastCoastMs_, Rodriguez is actually better in 2024 in high-leverage spots than he was in 2023.

According to the tweet, Rodriguez has a .318 average in 47 plate appearances in high-leverage spots. He has three home runs, eight RBIs and 158 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus). In comparision, he had a .242 average in 80 plate appearances with a 127 wRC+, three home runs and 21 RBIs in 2023.

According to Baseball Savant, Rodriguez has gone 13-for-39 (.333 average) with two home runs and seven RBIs in the ninth and extra innings this season with three stolen bases in the ninth. He has a .904 OPS in the ninth inning. The only other frame Rodriguez is better in than the ninth and extras is the second inning (.350 average, one home run, two RBIs).

Now when it comes to Rodriguez's splits with runners in scoring position, it varies.

Here's his stats, according to Baseball Savant, in various situations:

Runners at first and second: 29 ABs, .172 AVG., one HR, five RBIs.

Runners at first and third: 15 ABs, .467 AVG., nine RBIs.

Runners at second and third: five ABs, .200 AVG., two RBIs.

Runner at second: 41 ABs, .122 AVG., two RBIs.

Runner at third: 13 ABs, .385 AVG., one HR, seven RBIs.

Bases loaded: 14 ABs, .286 AVG., nine RBIs.

These stats don't really indicate one way or another whether Rodriguez is actually clutch. Some situations he's bad, others he's great and others he's OK to decent.

But one thing is for sure — he is not nearly as bad in critical spots as some people are making him out to be.

And this is another thing to realize: Rodriguez isn't having a bad year. He's having a down season by his standards.

He's batting .265 this season with 16 home runs, 54 RBIs and 22 steals. He also leads the team in hits (139) and multi-hit games (34) despite missing almost three weeks with a high-ankle sprain that kept him out of the outfield for over a month.

This is just Rodriguez's third season in the majors. He's 23 years-old. He made the All-Star Game his first two years in the majors. And his "bad season" is being a well-above average hitter and defender that's one of the top two batters on his team.

But he's also the face of the franchise. And with that comes the weight of a city and a fan base.

But a lot of the criticism levied against him have also come from incorrect narratives. And if this is Rodriguez's version of bad season, he'll be exactly what the Mariners expect him to be: a star.

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Teren Kowatsch
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