Popular Baseball Website FanGraphs Predicting Big Year For Julio Rodriguez
Last season wasn't the year that Seattle Mariners, or the team's face of the franchise, would have wanted.
The Mariners at one point were on pace to set the all-time single-season record for hitters striking out in a single season and finished dead-last in the league in that category (1,625). It was also a down 2024 for Julio Rodriguez.
The two-time All-Star and 2022 American League Rookie of the Year had his worst season as a professional. He missed three weeks with an ankle injury that kept him out of the outfield for a month. He finished with a .273 batting average, 20 home runs and 68 RBIs. He also stole 24 bases.
On the surface, that isn't a "bad" season for Seattle's young star. But a lot of his numbers improves significantly in September. Rodriguez entered the month with a .259 batting average and 13 home runs. He ended up finishing the year with a 3.8 fWAR (FanGraphs WAR), a full 2.0 fWAR lower than his previous two major league seasons, per FanGraphs.
Julio Rodríguez, first home run since July 20.
— Daniel Kramer (@DKramer_) August 28, 2024
Exit velo: 95.0 mph
Launch angle: 33°
Distance: 356 ft.
Hang time: 5.6 seconds pic.twitter.com/6HVStBu6kJ
FanGraphs' ZiPS Projections is favorable to the Mariners' lineup despite their struggles in 2024. And it's particularly kind to Rodriguez.
FanGraphs predicts Rodriguez returning to form in 2025. The site projects him to post a 5.8 fWAR in 2025, almost a full fWAR point higher than the second-highest projected position player (Cal Raleigh).
The website has Rodriguez finishing 2025 with a near-30-30 season (30 home runs, 30 steals). His full projected statline has him finishing with a .275 batting average with 30 home runs, 88 RBIs and 28 steals. The same projections have him finishing with a 134 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) and an .809 OPS (.474 SLG, .335 OBP).
Projections aren't a crystal ball. But there are indicators that Rodriguez will be better in 2025 than in 2024.
Rodriguez developed a rapport with hitting coach Edgar Martinez. And even though Martinez won't be back in the same roll full-time in 2025, he'll still be with the team in some capacity. Seattle's President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto said that the organization could explore giving Rodriguez more plate appearances in Spring Training to avoid another slow start to the regular season.
These factors definitely contribute to the belief that Rodriguez is in line for a bounce back 2025.
It's been a common thought since Rodriguez debuted in 2022 that the team goes as far as he does. And if that holds true in 2025, then Seattle could go far next season.
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