Seattle Mariners Odds of Landing Top Overall Draft Pick Revealed
While the MLB playoffs are still going on, the Seattle Mariners focus is now on the offseason.
The Mariners missed out on the postseason for the 22nd time in 23 years and have a lot of decisions to make before spring training starts in February.
There are several important offseason events to cross off for Seattle before making way to Peoria, Ariz., for its annual spring contests. One of those is the MLB Winter Meetings in December and the corresponding MLB Draft lottery.
And according to an article published by MLB Trade Rumors (via information from Baseball America's Carlos Collazo), the Mariners won't have the best luck in trying to snag a top-six pick.
Seattle has the second-worst odds at getting the top pick in the 2025 MLB Draft at 0.54%, just ahead of just the Arizona Diamondbacks (0.27%). That is because the M's had the second-best record among teams that missed the playoffs.
The Colorado Rockies and Miami Marlins own the top odds at 22.45% apeice and the Mariners' American League West rivals, the Los Angeles Angels, own the third-best odds at 17.96%.
But just because the odds are low doesn't mean a top pick is impossible.
The Cleveland Guardians won the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft despite having just a 2% chance of winning the lottery. They used that draft pick to select Oregon State alum Travis Bazzana, who posted a .238 average with two home runs and 12 RBIs in 101 at-bats in High-A ball this season.
The Mariners coveted pitching in 2024 after focusing on drafting position players in the previous drafts. They selected switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje out of Mississippi State with the No. 15 pick. Despite having yet to throw a pitch in a game under the organization, Cijntje is ranked as the franchise's No. 7 prospect, according to MLB Pipeline.
Can’t wait to watch Jurrangelo Cijntje’s pro debut in 2025. pic.twitter.com/QR6FJFEaug
— Mariners Minors (@MiLBMariners) September 14, 2024
Things can change based on how the college baseball and high school baseball seasons play out. But, according to Baseball America, the top six 2025 draft prospects are:
1. Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M
2. Ethan Holliday, SS, Stillwater High School
3. Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
4. Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
5. Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona High School
6. Cam Cannarella, OF, Clemson
Seattle has an abundance of pitching and middle infield talent in the farm system. That makes the odds of them going after someone like Holliday improbable, even if he is a part of one of the royal families of baseball.
If the Mariners do get the top pick or a lottery pick, it's likely that LaViolette, Cannarella or any other top outfielder would be the go-to option.
Jace LaViolette hits nukes🚀 4 HR’s in 4 games for the stud sophomore🔥 pic.twitter.com/cenEIHtFU2
— Aggie Sports 365 (@365Aggie) February 20, 2024
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