Should the Seattle Mariners Sign Victor Robles to a Contract Now?
When it comes to Seattle Mariners outfielder Victor Robles, there's a few things going on.
First and foremost, he's been hugely important to this team. Simply put, they don't lead the American League West by 1.5 games without him. He's been critical as a fill-in leadoff hitter and a fill-in centerfielder. Robles is hitting .349 over his 36 games with the Mariners and is carrying a 172 OPS+ with the team, and he's flashing all the skills that once made him a top-five prospect in the sport. He's also become a fan-favorite, flashing an energy and a personality that this team has lacked at times this year.
On Sunday, Robles said that he likes Seattle and he wants to stay, prompting some to wonder if the Mariners should jump at the opportunity and just lock him up now.
That's a nuanced conversation, so let's examine some of the factors:
What does the money look like?
Someone needs to bet and blink here. If the Mariners think that Robles is absolutely for real, signing him now could keep the price from going up even further over the last two months of the season. However, if they pay him now and he craters, you're left holding the bag.
In Robles's case, the same thing is true. If he signs now, he could be missing out on 29 other suitors in the offseason who saw him play well for an extended period of time. He could be missing out on millions of dollars by signing early, but he's also ensuring he has something if he does regress again.
Signing Robles provides security for both sides:
If the Mariners sign Robles now, they have essentially fulfilled all their offseason shopping in the outfield, haven't they? It would be a relief to know that you have Julio Rodriguez, Robles and Randy Arozarena in the outfield, with Mitch Haniger, Cade Marlowe, Luke Raley and Dom Canzone all as options for back-up spots.
Furthermore, Robles would get the comfort of knowing he's in a place where he's wanted and valued. He's also likely have a clear-defined role as a starting right fielder or a versatile fourth OF, something he may not necessarily get on the market.
What is the biggest question here?
There's certainly the question of how real this hot streak is for Robles, but there's also this question:
Would signing Robles now preclude the Mariners from doing other things we may think are interesting and necessary in the offseason?
As I just said above, signing Robles essentially fulfills all your spots, doesn't it? Is the team willing to simply cut or trade Mitch Haniger to open up a spot for another outfielder, like free agent-to-be Tyler O'Neill?
If Robles is guaranteed a starting spot, aren't you just rolling with Haniger and his $17 million club option and the other guys listed above? Would you really jettison Haniger just to make room for a fourth outfielder?
If Robles is signed to a be fourth outfielder, you'd have to move on from Haniger, surely, but is Robles even going to be OK with being a fourth outfielder? We don't know for sure. Who would they go after to fill that third spot?
What does Victor Robles value?
Perhaps the biggest key of all, isn't it? What is most important to Victor Robles? Does he value money? The opportunity to win? The opportunity to play every day? The opportunity to be in a place where he's comfortable?
He's certainly comfortable in Seattle. Again, would he be willing to be a fourth outfielder just to stay here? Or does the team have to guarantee him a starting spot?
Only time will tell.
The Victor Robles conversation was a major part of our newest "Refuse to Lose" podcast, which also features prominent M's podcaster Ty Dane Gonzalez of "Locked On" Mariners. You can listen below:
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