TEREN'S TAKE: There's Reason For Cautious Optimism For Seattle Mariners in 2025
The Seattle Mariners last season missed out on the playoffs by one game despite having a starting rotation that was arguably the best in baseball. But after spending a week at the Peoria Sports Complex in Peoria, Ariz., there's a different vibe around the facility.
The Mariners followed 2024 by making few additions in the offseason. They re-signed Jorge Polanco to a one-year, $7.75 million deal to play third base and brought in veteran infielder Donovan Solano on a one-year, $3.5 million to platoon with Luke Raley at first base. It seems Solano will receive reps at third, as well, if spring training is any indication.
Ryan Bliss has also all but secured the second base job. Rowdy Tellez has been an unexpected highlight at first base and designated hitter and has played well in Cactus League action.
Fans, media and former players were critical of Seattle for not spending more in the offseason to bring in a marquee free agent. The team should have spent more, or have been willing to. But there's reason to be cautiously optimistic about the Mariners in 2025.
Last season. The offense was the weakest link of the team. But as bad as the offense was, Seattle was still one game from the playoffs. And that was likely the floor of how bad the offense could be.
Whether it was due to injuries, inconsistencies or both, several players had seasons that were among the worst of their careers: J.P. Crawford, Mitch Garver, Julio Rodriguez and Polanco were among those players. More than half the lineup struggled.
All of them could be better in 2025. Polanco had offseason knee surgery and even though his defense at third has looked suspect in spring training, he's showing much better timing with solid contact at the plate.
Garver showed up to camp stronger and with a new batting stance. Rodriguez and Crawford have publicly bought in to the messaging from Dan Wilson, the instruction of hitting coach Kevin Seitzer and senior director of hitting strategy Edgar Martinez. The team started to commit to the instructions when Wilson and Martinez were brought in the last 34 games of last season. The team went 21-13 over that stretch.
Need a MASSIVE Mitch Garver bounce back in 2025
— EastCoastM’s🔱 (@EastCoastMs_) March 10, 2025
Loving what’s he doing for the Mariners in Spring Training, just need it to translate to the regular season👀 pic.twitter.com/vxCp2br83f
This is all comes with the caveat that it is spring training. Stats and observations from games and practice need to be taken with a grain of salt.
When the Mariners have had a major league lineup in the spring (or close to it), the offense has show a healthy balance of small ball and an ability to get on base consistently. It hasn't played out in wins, but that's mainly due to typical spring training substitutions and bullpen struggles. But there has been visual proof that the players are legitimately applying what Martinez, Seitzer and Wilson have asked them to.
Here's the stats for Seattle's projected starters in Cactus League play entering Wednesday:
Victor Robles (RF): .233 BA, 2 HRs, 7 RBIs, .702 OPS
Rodriguez (CF): .229 BA, 3 HRs, 11 RBIs, .834 OPS
Cal Raleigh (C): .152 BA, 3 HRs, 8 RBIs, .579 OPS.
Randy Arozarena (LF): .326 BA, 1 HR, 4 RBIs, .789 OPS
Raley (1B): .313 BA, 2 RBIs, .840 OPS
Tellez (DH): .297 BA, 3 HRs, 4 RBIs, .928 OPS
Polanco (3B): .269 BA, 1 HR, 6 RBIs, .731 OPS
Bliss (2B): .333 BA, 2 RBIs, .888 OPS
Crawford (SS): .188 BA, 1 HR, 2 RBIs, .551 OPS
And here are the stats for several key backups and reserves:
Garver (C/DH): .346 BA, 3 HRs, 6 RBIs, 1.092 OPS
Solano: .320 BA, .770 OPS
Miles Mastrobuoni (UTIL): .455 BA, 5 RBIs, 1.136 OPS
Dylan Moore (UTIL): .088 BA, .272 OPS
Some of the numbers for the top half of the order aren't impressive. But Rodriguez, Robles, Arozarena and Polanco have all shown signs of heating up in recent days.
Polo solo! #TridentsUp pic.twitter.com/yBqacXb4cF
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) March 19, 2025
Even if the offense does better, there's the possibility that the team can't depend on the health of the starting rotation like it did last season.
The Mariners had the only staff that with four pitchers who started 30 or more games. The rotation led the league in innings pitched and strikeouts. Depending on that kind of health again isn't wise. One of the starting pitchers, George Kirby, is already out for at least two regular season starts with right shoulder inflammation.
Last year showed how an elite and healthy staff balances out an offense that underperformed. The end results might be similar to last year if the offense does better but the rotation's health takes a hit.
But the American League is wide open. The New York Yankees starting rotation has been hit with the injury bug this offseason and the Houston Astros have seemingly regressed by trading Kyle Tucker and losing Alex Bregman. The AL seems more wide open than it was a year ago. If Seattle had an average offense in 2024, it would have been in the playoffs comfortably.
The Mariners offense could still be bad, and the team could still miss the playoffs. And it wouldn't be surprising. But there's reason for cautious optimism coming out of spring training. And if Seattle does return to the playoffs, that wouldn't be a shock either.
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