Seattle Mariners Give up Early Lead, Division Title to Houston Astros
For a long time, the Houston Astros have represented what the Seattle Mariners want to be: a perennial American League West champion and World Series contender.
In June, it looked like this season would be that year the Mariners would take their seat on top of the AL West. They led the division by 10 games and the only team in baseball with a worse record than the Astros was the historically-bad Chicago White Sox.
Fast forward three months later, and Houston clinched its fourth consecutive AL West title on Tuesday with a 4-3 win against Seattle — which is still fighting for a spot in the playoffs. The loss dropped the Mariners to 81-77. They're now 2.5 games out of the second and third AL Wild Card spots, which are occupied by the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers, who are both tied for the last two playoff spots.
Seattle starter Logan Gilbert and Houston starter Framber Valdez, rightfully regarded as two of the best pitchers in the league, both had days they would rather forget. Gilbert gave up four earned runs off five hits (three home runs) in 6.0 innings pitched and Valdez gave up three earned runs off eight hits (one home run). But both did enough to give their teams chances to win.
All of the Astros' runs came off homers. Alex Bregman hit the first — a solo shot to right field in the bottom of the opening inning to put Houston up 1-0.
Jorge Polanco immediately got the run back in the top of the second and knotted the game up at 1-1 with a solo homer of his own to left field. He finished the day 4-for-4 with two RBIs.
A Polo solo shot! 💥 pic.twitter.com/StTOXTv7AO
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) September 25, 2024
Polanco's second RBI came one inning later off a single. His hit was two at-bats after Randy Arozarena hit an RBI double. The pair of knocks gave Seattle a 3-1 lead through three innings. Those were the last runs for the Mariners despite several opportunities later in the game.
"Another tight ball game tonight," Mariners manager Dan Wilson said in a postgame interview Tuesday. " ... It was back-and-forth. Tough one to swallow. I thought Logan pitched a great ball game. (Polanco) with four hits tonight. We had a lot of great things to look forward tonight and look at. We just weren't able to end this one on top."
A few more knocks, a few more runs. #TridentsUp pic.twitter.com/ECjbuZgh9p
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) September 25, 2024
Kyle Tucker brought the Astros within one with a solo home run to right field in the bottom of the fourth. Jason Heyward gave Houston the eventual final of 4-3 one inning later with a two-run shot to right center field in the bottom of the fifth.
"It's not very fun," Gilbert said in a postgame interview Tuesday. "It's a competitive game and it's been that way all season against them. But we knew where we were halfway through the season, where we're at now. So it's frustrating. ... I felt good. It's some of the best stuff I've had all season. They hit a couple good pitches, couple mistakes. That's just baseball."
Seattle had several opportunities to tie the game or retake the lead after Houston's go-ahead shot.
The Mariners left two runners in scoring position in the top of the sixth and runners on the corners in the top of the eighth. They left eight stranded for the game and went 2-for-10 with runners in scoring position.
Josh Hader had a four-out save for the Astros and struck out three of four batters faced to end the game.
Seattle entered the series against Houston on Monday needing two of the three scenarios to happen: win two more games than the Minnesota Twins, three more than Kansas City Royals or three more than the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers won 2-1 and the Royals won 1-0 on Tuesday.
The Mariners' playoff odds have dropped from over 11% entering Tuesday to 2.8% after the loss, according to FanGraphs.
The leash is gone. Even if Seattle wins out its final four games, the route to the playoffs involves some combination of Minnesota not doing better than 3-2, Detroit going 1-4 and Kansas City going 1-4 to end the season.
There's been too many series and one-run losses that the Mariners can point to, even in the last month, as to why they're in the position they're in.
Seattle can win its final four and still miss the playoffs. That's a hard reality to swallow for Mariners fans. But it might be exactly what happens when the season ends on Sept. 29.
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