Brady's Spin: Until Julio Rodriguez Fixes Pitch Recognition, Nothing Else Matters

Seattle Mariners' star Julio Rodriguez is scuffling in a big way. Despite being dropped all the way to seventh in the order on Tuesday, Rodriguez went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts, including a game-ender. Rodriguez is undoubtedly working hard, but until he fixes his pitch recognition, none of the other stuff will matter.

Seattle Mariners center fielder Julio Rodriguez (44) reacts after striking out swinging against the Houston Astros during the sixth inning at T-Mobile Park on May 30. / Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Let me make this very clear: Seattle Mariners' star Julio Rodriguez is trying to fix this. In fact, he's trying really hard. That's evident.

Rodriguez has his personal hitting coach in Seattle working with him. He's working with Hall of Famer Edgar Martinez and putting in extra work in the cage. He wants to live up to the $450 million contract the Mariners gave him and he so badly wants to be the guy that we all want him to be. Everyone can see that.

Julio back out for early work with his personal hitting instructor, with Edgar Martinez engaged in the conversation too. pic.twitter.com/XspQOadWSN

— Adam Jude (@A_Jude) July 2, 2024

Let me also make this very clear: Until Julio Rodriguez fixes his ability to recognize pitches, almost none of the other stuff matters. Not the extra swings, not the extra film study, not the private hitting coaches, the mechanical tweaks or the humungous desires.

See, the other day I wrote a story that criticized Dom Canzone for essentially swinging at everything thrown to him. The same thing can be said about Rodriguez. He swings at almost everything thrown to him and he just simply gets himself out way too often. You are easy to pitch to when you do that.

Rodriguez has a chase rate of 37.5 percent, meaning he's in the 8th percentile in that metric. It doesn't matter if it's a fastball in or a fastball up, he's swinging. It doesn't matter if it's a slider out or a changeup down, he's swinging. When you swing at everything and constantly get down 0-2 or 1-2, it's really hard to hit. When you constantly expand the zone, it's really hard to hit. And it's also really hard to hit when you're missing the few pitches you actually see over the plate.

Julio's 1st (far right), 3rd (middle) and 4th (left) at-bats today. Chasing and getting himself out or missing his pitch. pic.twitter.com/HAzjjriw9e

— Brady Farkas (@WDEVRadioBrady) July 3, 2024

Take this at-bat in the bottom right of the above post, which was the first of the day for Rodriguez on Tuesday against Grayson Rodriguez:

Pitch No. 4 was a slider that was off the plate. He swung. Instead of a 3-1 count, it was 2-2. See pitch six? That could have been a walk. Instead? It was a pop-up to second.

How about the at-bat on the left side of that post? Rodriguez swung at pitch one, which is nearly impossible to hit off Craig Kimbrel. He also fouled off a perfectly hittable pitch three and then swung at both pitches four and five, which were not strikes. That strikeout stranded runners at second and third and ended the game.

The Mariners have now lost nine of their last 12 games and have seen their American League West lead shrink to three games. Rodriguez is working hard, but until this fatal flaw is fixed, he is bound to keep struggling.

The M's play the Orioles on Wednesday night at 7:10 p.m. PT.

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