Victor Robles Predicted to Regress With Seattle Mariners in 2025
The Seattle Mariners offense was the biggest disappointment for the team in 2024.
The club was top 10 in the MLB in most offensive categories after Edgar Martinez and Dan Wilson were hired on Aug. 22 as the hitting coach and manager, respectively. But injuries and early-season struggles came back to haunt the Mariners and they missed the playoffs by a game. It was the fourth straight year where Seattle found out its playoff fate in the final week of the regular season.
One of the shining moments for the Mariners was the career resurgence of former World Series champion and top prospect Victor Robles.
Robles found his career at a crossroads after he was cut by the team he won a World Series with, the Washington Nationals, on June 1. He signed with Seattle on June 4. After a month and a half spent mostly on the bench, Robles became the team's de facto lead-off hitter after starting shortstop JP Crawford went on the injured list for over a month with a broken hand. He became the Mariners' starting right fielder and played like a borderline MVP candidate in the final two months of the season.
In 77 games played with Seattle in 2024, Robles hit .328 with four homers and 26 RBIs. He also stole 30 bases. He had an OPS of .860 and a wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) of 154.
Victor Robles goes upper tank! #TridentsUp pic.twitter.com/4H06yzmVTS
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) July 7, 2024
Robles' earned a two-year extension for his phenomenal season. But, as great as his 2024 was, popular website FanGraphs predicts Robles to come back down to earth in 2025.
The website's ZiPS projections model has Robles still being a productive player, but not nearly to the level he was in 2025. FanGraphs has Robles finishing with a .255 batting average to go with five home runs, 32 RBIs and 24 stolen bases. The model has Robles dropping from a 3.1 fWAR (FanGraphs WAR) in 2024 to a 1.9 fWAR in 2025. The same model also anticipates his OPS dropping from .860 to .698.
This seems like a steep drop off on paper, but it's important to keep several details in mind. For one, Robles' .255 batting average would be the second most on the team in 2025 behind Julio Rodriguez, according to the projections. He also would still be a danger on the base paths with 24 predicted steals.
Another thing to keep in mind is FanGraphs' projections are similar to what Robles' stats are when he plays close to a full season. The Dominican outfielder has played more than 130 games just twice in his nine-year career: 2019 and 2022.
Robles batted .255 with 17 home runs and 65 RBIs with 28 steals in 2019. In 2022, Robles hit at a clip of .224 with six homers and 33 RBIs to go with 15 steals.
But Robles is a different player than he was in those two seasons. His batting stance is different, leading to his success with base hits, and he's a more effective runner when he's on base. He was caught stealing 13 times in those two aforementioned seasons with Washington. He was caught twice all of 2024.
It's hard to predict what a full season of Robles in his current form will entail. But even if it falls more in line with what FanGraphs anticipates, he'll still be an effective player for the Mariners in 2025.
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