ZiPS Projections Predict 'Solid And Stable' Year From Seattle Mariners Lineup
The Seattle Mariners offense last season was the biggest weakness of the team and the main reason the club missed out on the playoffs for the 22nd time in 23 years.
The Mariners struck out more than any team in the majors (1,625) and were at one point on pace to set the major league record in that category.
Injuries played a role in the struggles. Julio Rodriguez, JP Crawford, Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, Victor Robles and Cal Raleigh all either missed time or were banged up for portions of the season.
The offense did pick up when hitting coach Edgar Martinez and manager Dan Wilson were hired on Aug. 22. But there were too few games left in the year for the shift in performance to pay off in the form of a Seattle postseason berth.
Despite the offense's miscues, a recent predictions article from FanGraphs was fairly kind to the lineup.
The popular baseball site released its 2025 ZiPS projections. And it has the Mariners' order as solid, if not unspectacular.
The article, written by Dan Szymboski, pointed out that there is a drop-off in the lineup after franchise star Rodriguez and Platinum Glove catcher Raleigh:
Once you get past Rodríguez and Raleigh, the offense is fine, but rather underwhelming. Being decent everywhere raises your team floor quite a bit, but it also becomes very hard to meaningfully upgrade. ZiPS does see Victor Robles remaining a very solid starter in 2025, which is good news, and while second base feels a bit messy, the projections see basically all of the options as passable; this isn’t a White Sox situation from a few years ago, where they collected a bunch of 0.5-WAR second baseman with the apparent desire to Voltron them into an All-Star. ZiPS is especially sold on Cole Young’s future.
JULIO RODRIGUEZ.
— Seattle Mariners ON Tap (@MarinersONTap) September 21, 2024
3 homers in 2 games.
5 homers in the last 8 games. pic.twitter.com/9WYHlPsSiC
FanGraphs projects Rodriguez to have a 5.8 fWAR and Raleigh to have a 4.9 fWAR in 2025. The projections have team captain and starting shortstop Crawford to have a resurgent year with a 3.1 fWAR.
It's important to note that these projections are based off the current construction of the team. President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto and General Manager Justin Hollander have both identified the infield as positions of improvement. And considering the offseason is just three weeks in, there's a very good chance these numbers change by Opening Day on March 27, 2025 based on who the club adds to the roster.
Even still, it's interesting to see FanGraphs predict the Mariners' offensive floor relatively high considering what the bats showed for most of 2024.
Projections are just that. They're not a perfect science. But if Seattle manages to improve the infield and the 2025 ZiPS model holds true, then it could have a better year than anticipated.
In the same breath, the model has the Mariners projected for an 85-90 win season when taking into account injuries.
Based on what moves Seattle makes, it could be another dramatic and frustrating season for fans. Or it could be the year where the Mariners make a jump and add another division title to the rafters. The first title since 2001.
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