Inside The Mariners

Pair of Seattle Mariners Prospects Named "Elite Swing Decision Makers" by Publication

National publication Baseball America published analytics highlighting several Seattle Mariners prospects.

Teren Kowatsch

Great Britain catcher Harry Ford hits a double against Mexico during the World Baseball Classic on March 14, 2023, at Chase Field.
Great Britain catcher Harry Ford hits a double against Mexico during the World Baseball Classic on March 14, 2023, at Chase Field. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
In this story:

The Seattle Mariners farm system has been one of the biggest successes of the organization over the last several years.

The Mariners began the season with their farm system ranked in the middle of the pack. But the rise of several prospects like Colt Emerson, Lazaro Montes and Michael Arroyo helped the farm rise in the ranks.

By the end of the season, Seattle had eight players ranked in Baseball America's top 100 (the most in the league) and five ranked in MLB Pipeline's top 100.

And several Mariners prospects received more praise from Baseball America in an article published by Dylan White on Tuesday.

In the article, White coined the moniker of "elite swing decision makers." The term was used to refer to prospects with a healthy ratio of swings at pitches inside the strike zone to go with low chase percentages.

The mark for prospects to clear to be considered elite at their swing choices was an in-zone swing percentage of 74% or higher and a chase percentage of 27% or lower.

White made this distinction to help differentiate set aside players who can recognize hittable pitches and lay off breaking and offspeed offerings.

According to that metric, Seattle catcher Harry Ford and shortstop Michael Arroyo both qualify as elite swing decision makers. Ford had an in-zone swing percentage of roughly 75% with a chase percentage of just under 17%.

Ford played the entire season with the organization's Double-A Arkansas Travelers. He batted .249 with seven home runs and 45 RBIs.

Arroyo had an even 60/60 game split with Low-A Modesto Nuts and High-A Everett AquaSox, totaling 120 contests. He hit .285 with 23 home runs and 89 RBIs.

A former Mariners prospect, RJ Schreck, was in the same category as Ford and Arroyo. He had a chase percentage of just over 19% with an in-zone swing rate of around 76.5%. Schreck was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays straight-up for Justin Turner on July 29.

There was also a category of "passive hitters." That moniker was given to players with both a sub-74% in-zone swing percentage and a sub-27% chase percentage. Basically hitters that prefer to layoff pitches. Exactly what it sounds like. Passive.

According to White's article, just one Seattle prospect was mentioned in that category: outfielder Jonny Farmelo. He had an in-zone swing rate of just over 58% and chased at a rate just under 21%. Farmelo played 46 games this season before being placed on the 60-day injured list on June 14 with a torn ACL. His sample size was significantly smaller than Ford and Arroyo's, who both played over 100 games.

Farmelo played his 46 games with the Nuts and hit .264 with four home runs and 25 RBIs.

There were two more categories of hitters included in the article: free-swingers (over 74% in-zone swing rate, over 27% chase rate) and danger-zone hitters (under 74% in-zone swing rate, over 27% chase rate).

Thankfully for Mariners fans, there wasn't one of the organization's prospects mentioned as a danger-zone or free-swinging hitter.

There's several ways this is encouraging for Seattle's farm system. For one, the minor leaguers are being taught patient, disciplined swinging. The fact that Arroyo qualified as an elite decision maker while leading prospects 19 years-old or younger with home runs is impressive.

The second positive is that this is extremely encouraging for when these prospects debut in the majors. Granted, it's the minor leagues. Pitchers aren't as precise with their throws and hitters can pick up on tells and routines easier than they can in the big leagues.

But it's still encouraging that several of the Mariners top prospects seem to be developing proper habits.

The biggest thing left to see is how they continue to grow and develop and transfer those lessons to the majors.

Related Stories on Seattle Mariners

MARINERS PITCHING PROSPECT TAKES MAJOR STEP IN RECOVERY: Video from the Seattle Mariners High Performance Camp in Arizona showed a promising pitching prospect throwing after serious surgery. CLICK HERE

MILLER HAS ONE OF THE BEST PITCHES IN THE LEAGUE, PER WEBSITE: Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Bryce Miller took a massive step in 2024, and one of his pitches was among the league's best. CLICK HERE

OPINION: MATT BRASH'S RETURN WILL MAKE A BIGGER IMPACT THAN FANS REALIZE: Seattle Mariners reliever Matt Brash is set to return in June or July from Tommy John surgery. CLICK HERE

Follow Seattle Mariners on SI on social media

Continue to follow our Inside the Mariners coverage on social media by liking us on Facebook and by following Teren Kowatsch and Brady Farkas on "X" @Teren_Kowatsch and @wdevradiobrady. You can subscribe to the "Refuse to Lose" podcast by clicking HERE.

Published
Teren Kowatsch
TEREN KOWATSCH

Home/Prospects