SI:AM | Decisive Mets–Braves Doubleheader Is an Endangered Species

Games like this were supposed to be a thing of the past.

Can the Mets continue their second half surge to reach the postseason? / Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. I’ll be glued to the couch starting at 1 p.m. for this big Mets–Braves game.

In today’s SI:AM:

🐴 Another great moment for Flacco
📝 Extend Darnold?
🇺🇸 Keegan Bradley’s incredible run

October starts early

When MLB altered its playoff format before the 2022 season, expanding the field to 12 teams and making the wild-card round a best-of-three series, it necessitated the elimination of an early-autumn classic: the tiebreaker game. Colloquially known as Game 163, the tiebreaker game was the pinnacle of baseball drama. In the event of a tie for a division crown or wild-card spot, the teams involved would play one game after the conclusion of the regular season to decide who would move on to the playoffs.

Tiebreakers were exceedingly rare—only 16 of them were played, the first in 1946 and the last in 2018—but they produced some of MLB’s most memorable moments, including light hitting New York Yankees shortstop Bucky Dent’s improbable go-ahead home run against the Boston Red Sox in 1978 and Matt Holliday’s controversial slide to win the game in the 13th inning for the Colorado Rockies in 2007.

These do-or-die playoff appetizers were supposed to be a thing of the past, but thanks to some inclement weather, the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves will play the closest thing possible to a tiebreaker game on Monday. Heavy rain in Atlanta last week forced two critical games between the Mets and Braves to be postponed and made up as part of a doubleheader on Monday. Those two teams and the Arizona Diamondbacks entered the weekend as the only three teams still alive for the final two NL wild-card spots. It was possible that the results of Friday, Saturday and Sunday’s games could have decided the race and not required Monday’s doubleheader to be played, but that’s not the case. Both games need to be played to decide which of the three teams will be playing in October.

The situation looks like this. If the Braves and Mets split the doubleheader, both teams will qualify for the playoffs. If either team sweeps the doubleheader, the winning team is in, the losing team is out and the Diamondbacks are in.

It’s fairly straightforward, but it’ll put the team that wins the first game in an interesting position. There isn’t any real advantage to winning both games, and so whoever wins Game 1 won’t be incentivized to try to win the second game. The Braves can only be the No. 5 seed, whether they win one game or both, and would face the San Diego Padres in the wild-card round. With a split, the Mets would be the No. 6 seed and face the Milwaukee Brewers. New York could earn the No. 5 seed by winning both games. However, a possible matchup against the Padres isn’t so much more appealing than playing the Brewers that the Mets would go all-out to win the second game after already clinching a playoff spot with a win in the opener. With the playoffs set to start on Tuesday, the team that clinches its postseason appearance with a win in Game 1 will want to rest as many of its regulars as possible in the second game, meaning the losing team will have to beat a depleted lineup in Game 2 to punch its ticket.

The Mets will send Tylor Megill to the mound for the first game, while Spencer Schwellenbach will pitch for Atlanta. Both pitchers have been excellent of late. Megill has a 1.78 ERA in five starts since being recalled from the minors on Aug. 30, and Schwellenbach, a rookie, has a 2.59 ERA since July 27. Both teams are pulling out the big guns for a potential do-or-die second game, though. The Braves are slated to start Cy Young favorite Chris Sale, while the Mets have penciled in Luis Severino. Severino has had a bounceback season (3.91 ERA) after a dismal 2023 across town with the Yankees. Other Mets starters have been more reliable this season (he has the fourth best ERA of any Mets pitcher with at least 10 starts) but Severino has the most playoff experience of any starter on the roster.

The doubleheader will be a true playoff preview, not only because of what’s at stake but because it will be broadcast nationally on ESPN2. The first game will start at 1:10 p.m. ET, with the second game to follow immediately after. If you’re a baseball fan, there isn’t a better way to spend your Monday afternoon and get ready for the postseason to begin for real on Tuesday.

Ryan Williams (left) torched Georgia’s defense for 177 receiving yards and a score Saturday. / Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

The best of Sports Illustrated

• Albert Breer wrote about the latest chapter of Joe Flacco’s storybook career, the Bengals’ first win and more in his Week 4 NFL takeaways.

• Conor Orr argues that the Vikings should sign Sam Darnold to a contract extension as soon as possible.

• The breakout star of the weekend was Alabama’s 17-year-old receiver Ryan Williams. Pat Forde has more on the freshman’s incredible game against Georgia.

• Chris Mannix broke down the blockbuster trade that will send Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks.

• Bob Harig was at the Presidents Cup in Montreal, where Keegan Bradley continued his incredible run by scoring the clinching point for the U.S. team.

• The Twins won’t be playing in October after an incredible late-season collapse. Tom Dierberger tried to figure out what went wrong for Minnesota.

• Will Laws wrote a haiku for every MLB team’s season.

The top five…

… things I saw yesterday:

5. Scottie Scheffler’s bunker shot directly into the hole.
4. Sabrina Ionescu’s deep three in the fourth quarter of the Liberty’s win over the Aces.
3. Josh Allen’s improvisation skills on this 52-yard gain.
2. Patrick Mahomes’s bomb of a touchdown pass that traveled more than 60 yards in the air.
1. Derrick Henry’s 87-yard touchdown run.