Could Mets Sell Starting Pitchers at Trade Deadline?

Many teams have been asking the Mets about the availability of their starters.

Jun 30, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Luis Severino (40) pitches in the first inning against the Houston Astros at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports / Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets are facing a conundrum - but it's a good one.

Thanks to an incredible June, New York has roared back into the playoff race and sit just one game behind the San Diego Padres for the third and last Wild Card spot in the National League. The Mets have even repaired their record to 42-41.

But this hasn't stopped other teams from asking about the Mets' starting rotation, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. The Mets have a surplus of starters, including some playing on expiring contracts, so there is legitimate incentive to trade one of their starters and get something in return.

Teams have been asking the Mets about their starting pitchers. The Mets have quantity, will have to decide who fits and who doesn't and if it makes sense to deal from that group headed to the trade deadline.

— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) July 3, 2024

In particular, the Mets have three pitchers in the rotation that could enter free agency after the season: Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, and Luis Severino. Manaea has a player option of $13 million that he can opt out of, while Quintana and Severino will both be unrestricted free agents no matter what.

Because the Mets also want to compete for a playoff spot, they may be hesitant to deal these options. Severino and Manaea both lead New York's pitchers with 1.2 fWAR; the former leads the rotation with a 3.42 ERA and has an 18.5% strikeout rate against an 8% walk rate, while the latter has struck out 23.1% of the batters he's faced and has a 3.75 FIP. As for Quintana, he has shown occasional flashes of brilliance and his walk-to-strikeout rates are similar to Severino's.

What makes this a good problem to have for the Mets, however, is that they have legitimate options to replace whoever they choose to trade. Christian Scott is the team's best pitching prospect and was called back up to the majors; he has impressed many in his five starts, although he's looking to earn his first major league win. Jose Butto is currently in the bullpen, but he's seen success in the rotation earlier this season, which also makes him a viable option. Finally, Kodai Senga is the team's undisputed ace, and is set to begin a rehab assignment on Wednesday; he could be back as soon as the All-Star break.

It's a difficult decision for the Mets to make, but they should try to deal either Quintana or Manaea away. According to their respective peripherals on Baseball Savant, they may be due to regress over the course of the year; Quintana struggles to strike out opposing batters and usually gets hit very hard, while Manaea's tendencies to walk batters and also throw hittable pitches in the strike zone don't bode well for him.

As for Severino, the Mets should prioritize keeping him in the rotation this year, and possibly long-term. Even though he has strong velocity, he's excelled at inducing weak contact while having much better peripherals than Manaea or Quintana, indicating that his success will continue. Severino has been a power pitcher for most of his career, so it should be a matter of time before he starts striking out more batters.

The Mets' situation is unique in that they can sell at the deadline yet still compete, due to having legitimate replacements in the rotation if they choose to trade a starter. Of course, there are other areas where they'd need to buy (particularly the bullpen), so doing a mix of both buying and selling should benefit the team both in the short and long term.