Evaluating the Mets’ Qualifying Offer Decisions; Which Players Should Get It?

MLB's qualifying offer is set at a record $21.05 million for the 2025 season. The Mets must decide on 12 different players.

Aug 30, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; New York Mets pitcher Luis Severino (left), outfielder Jesse Winker (center), and designated hitter J.D. Martinez (right) pose in the dugout after Winker and Martinez score against the Chicago White Sox during the third inning at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images / Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Once the World Series concludes, the first order of business on the New York Mets’ offseason agenda will be to determine whether to extend one-year qualifying offers to their free agents, set at a record $21.05 million for the 2025 season.

The Mets will have five days after the season ends to give out their qualifying offers, while any player to receive one will have until November 19 to accept. Since the system was implemented in 2012, only 13 of 131 players have accepted.

If a player accepts, he will remain with the team. If he rejects it and signs with another team, the Mets will receive draft pick compensation between the fourth and fifth rounds, given their status as a repeat luxury-tax payer. New York has 12 pending free agents on which they must make decisions–here is a closer look at how they compare:

Easy Yes: 1B Pete Alonso and LHP Sean Manaea (if $13.5 million player option is declined)

Alonso and Manaea are expected to be two of the most coveted players in free agency this winter. While New York would love to keep them, both will have the opportunity to explore the market and pursue lucrative offers from the Mets or other teams.

Entering his age-30 season, Alonso is coming off a relatively down regular season but thrived during New York's impressive postseason run. The four-time All-Star first baseman is just 27 home runs away from surpassing Darryl Strawberry as the Mets’ all-time leader.

Manaea, 32, had a career year in Queens after previously settling for short-term “prove it” deals. The southpaw reinvented himself by enhancing his sinker and sweeper usage and adjusting his arm angle, establishing himself as the Mets’ ace. He finished with a 12-6 record, a 3.47 ERA, a 24.9% strikeout rate, and an 8.5% walk rate over 181.2 innings.

If either player cannot reach an agreement with the Mets, it would be preferable to secure draft pick compensation rather than risk losing them for nothing.

More Complicated, but Yes: RHP Luis Severino

After a career-worst 6.65 ERA in 18 starts with the New York Yankees in 2023, Severino signed a one-year, $13 million “prove it” deal with the Mets. This gamble paid off; Severino made over 20 starts for the first time since his 2018 All-Star season, finishing 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP across 182 innings.

Severino will likely pursue a longer-term contract this offseason, but if his camp believes he will not secure the desired number of years or come anywhere close to a $21.05 million average annual value (AAV) on the open market, he might be tempted to accept the qualifying offer to stay where he is comfortable. Even if it represents a slight overpay, this outcome would not be unfavorable for a Mets team that can afford it and needs to add multiple starters.

However, the Mets will face draft pick penalties if they re-sign any player who rejects the qualifying offer, so if New York retains interest in discussing a longer-term deal with Severino, that is a potential consequence they must weigh.

Easy No: OF Harrison Bader, DH J.D. Martinez, LHP José Quintana, OF Jesse Winker, LHP Brooks Raley, RHP Adam Ottavino, RHP Drew Smith, RHP Ryne Stanek, RHP Phil Maton (if $7.75 million club option is declined)

Choosing not to extend a qualifying offer does not imply disinterest in a player or rule out a potential reunion. It simply suggests the player is unlikely to receive an average annual value near $21.05 million on the open market.

Quintana, who turns 36 in January, pitched 170.1 innings with a 3.75 ERA for the Mets in 2024 during the final year of a two-year, $26 million deal. He should secure a short-term contract from a contender needing reliable starting pitching, but given his age and performance, anything above $16 million per year would be considered a massive overpay.

Martinez signed for less than the qualifying offer after a better season in 2023. Winker, who signed for $2 million before 2024, remains a strong candidate to return, though a drastic pay raise is unlikely. 

Bader's role diminished in the second half, and with internal options like Tyrone Taylor and No. 3 prospect Drew Gilbert available in center field, that position is not an immediate concern. 

Mets’ closer Edwin Díaz is among the highest-paid relievers in baseball, yet even he does not earn an AAV above this year’s qualifying offer. It is virtually impossible that any of the five relievers listed above will surpass his yearly salary this winter, especially since they are not lights-out closers.