Inside The Mets

Expert predicts Edwin Diaz loses closer role with New York Mets

One MLB analyst has predicted that Mets closer Edwin Diaz could lose his current role by the season's end.

Grant Young

Sep 6, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets relief pitcher Edwin Diaz (39) walks off the field after the top of the ninth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images
Sep 6, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets relief pitcher Edwin Diaz (39) walks off the field after the top of the ninth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images / Brad Penner-Imagn Images
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When he's at the top of his game, New York Mets closer Edwin Díaz is inarguably one of the best relievers in all of baseball. But the problem is that he's not always at the top of his game.

Of course, no pitcher is perfect and even the greatest closers in baseball history get touched up from time to time. Diaz is no different. And while he still posted a respectable 3.52 ERA during the 2024 regular season after missing the entire 2023 campaign due to a torn patellar tendon, he also blew 7 of his 27 regular season save opportunities.

Perhaps more concerning than those stats is that Diaz's fastball velocity has declined to this point in spring training, as his fastball has sat between 93 and 95 MPH this spring, compared to hovering at around 97 MPH last season. While the pitch has occasionally touched 97 in March, it hasn't been there consistently like in the past, where he could often get radar guns to read 100 MPH.

This drop in velocity is one of the main reasons why MLB expert John Harper predicted that Diaz would lose his closer role to Dedniel Núñez in a March 23 article.

"Diaz’s strong finish in 2024 made it easier to forget his up-and-down season but his shaky spring has resurrected concerns about whether he can still be an elite closer. His velocity has been down slightly and his inability to prevent baserunners from stealing at will against him is looming as a potentially costly problem," Harper wrote.

Read more: Mets' Carlos Mendoza explains where Edwin Diaz must improve

"Núñez, meanwhile, returned this spring from the flexor tendon injury that shut him down after he emerged as a surprise bullpen weapon in 2024, throwing 98 mph again. If Diaz can’t regain his 2022 dominance, in his second season back from knee surgery, the Mets could be better off with Núñez closing and Diaz in a setup role."

Another great season from Diaz can put this bold prediction to bed. But in case Diaz does struggle, it's good to know that another elite reliever like Núñez will be waiting in the wings so long as he remains healthy.

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Grant Young
GRANT YOUNG

Grant Young covers the New York Mets and Women’s Basketball for Sports Illustrated’s ‘On SI’ sites. He holds an MFA degree in creative writing from the University of San Francisco, where he also played Division 1 baseball for five years. He believes Mark Teixeira should have been a first ballot MLB Hall of Fame inductee.

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