Juan Soto Not Expected to Surpass Shohei Ohtani's Contract; How Much Will Mets Offer?

The Mets' top target in free agency will likely be the second-highest paid player in baseball.

Oct 19, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; New York Yankees outfielder Juan Soto (22) celebrates after hitting a three run home run during the tenth inning against the Cleveland Guardians during game five of the ALCS for the 2024 MLB playoffs at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Dermer-Imagn Images / David Richard-Imagn Images

Although the New York Mets' season is over, they have a big reason to watch the World Series as they prepare for a monumental offseason.

Outfielder Juan Soto, who will be taking the field for the cross-town New York Yankees in the Fall Classic, is the top free agent on the Mets' radar once the series concludes. The soon-to-be 26-year-old is coming off a career-year and is expected to get one of the biggest contracts in professional sports; with the Mets having the wealthiest owner in baseball in Steve Cohen, and a massive amount of money coming off the books, they are in perfect position to give the young superstar what he wants.

But how much will the Mets be willing to pay Soto? Apparently, the ceiling isn't limitless.

According to Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic, the chances of Soto matching or surpassing the $700 million contract that Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers received last winter "seems like a pipe dream", unless the Dominican phenom is willing to accept heavy deferrals like Ohtani did.

Aaron Judge left money on the table to stay in New York long-term.

The Yankees won’t get as lucky with Juan Soto — World Series win or not.@Britt_Ghiroli on the need for record money to keep New York's slugger: https://t.co/LOQr6semaO pic.twitter.com/XDPfn82lQH

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) October 22, 2024

While Ohtani signed a contract for $700 million over 10 years, he is being paid only $2 million per season while deferring the other $680 million; the Dodgers will pay him $68 million per year from 2034 to 2043. The net-present value is still a record-setting $46 million per year, but the other sources of income Ohtani has outside of baseball allows him to defer that huge chunk of money.

Regarding Soto, surpassing the $46 million in net-present value and average annual value (AAV) are realistic scenarios, especially with Cohen's reputation for handing out deals with monstrously high AAVs (such as to Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander). However, in order to reach or blow past the $700 million in total value, Soto would need to accept deferrals similar to Ohtani; given that he doesn't have the off-field sources of income that Ohtani has, this scenario is rather unrealistic.

Despite this, Soto is a lock to get the biggest contract for a position player in MLB history (the current record is held by Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels, with a 12-year, $426.5 million deal). Spotrac notably values the young superstar as a 14-year, $514 million player according to their algorithm; this could merely be the floor for a potential deal, with predictions of Soto's contract going as high as $600 million.

(Barely 25-year-old) Juan Soto will enter free agency as a 14 year, $514M player in our system, mathematically speaking. It's the highest single-position valuation our algorithm has ever spit out, and it feels like a starting point - not an end game for negotiations.

— Spotrac (@spotrac) October 20, 2024

Luring Soto away from the Bronx isn't as easy as it's being made out to be; the Yankees are far and away the most valuable franchise in Major League Baseball, with only the NFL's Dallas Cowboys having a higher value than the Bronx Bombers' $7.55 billion. Soto's evident enjoyment of his time there further complicates matters, as if the Yankees match an offer from the Mets, they'd have the advantage due to familiarity.

Regardless, the Mets still have possibly the biggest advantage of all in Steve Cohen. With a $16 billion net worth, Cohen is significantly wealthier than any other owner in the league, including Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner ($3.8 billion). Giving Soto what he wants would be a mere flesh wound to Cohen's seemingly limitless wallet.

The Mets came painstakingly close to making it to the World Series this year, but if they can land Soto in the offseason, their chances of claiming Queens' first title since 1986 would increase tremendously.