Why Mets' J.D. Davis Could be on Verge of Breakout at the Plate

Why Mets' J.D. Davis could be on the verge of a breakout at the plate.

Following the release of Robinson Cano, the Mets have mostly platooned J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith at designated hitter. 

While neither slugger has gotten off to the hottest of starts this season, Davis, a right-handed batter who mainly starts against lefties for matchup purposes, has been extremely unlucky at the plate.

In 50 at-bats, Davis is slashing .200/.339/.300 with a .639 OPS, one home run and four RBIs. But the results don't align with the 29-year-old's expected statistics. According to Baseball Savant, Davis is hitting the ball harder than ever, posting a 69.4 % hard-hit rate, which is nearly 25% higher than his career average. This has equated to an expected batting average of .325, expected slugging percentage of .613, and expected weighted on-base average of .454. His 110.3 max exit velocity also ranks in MLB's 74th percentile.

“There’s so much you can control," Davis told Inside the Mets of his unlucky start. "We’re hitting; we don’t know what pitch is coming and we don’t know where It’s going."

Davis' best season as a Met came in 2019, in which he slashed .307/.369/.527 with an .895 OPS, 22 home runs and 57 RBIs in 140 games. During this campaign, his expected numbers stacked up with the top 10% of hitters around the league in every major statistical category. This year, he has shattered these numbers throughout his first 62 plate appearances. 

Baseball Savant

"I know I’m swinging the bat well, and that’s all that matters," Davis said. "As long as I go out there and put together a professional at-bat, and barrel some balls up, that’s all I can control.

"Lining out feels better than grounding out as long as you’re doing the right thing by swinging at pitches in the zone and squaring them up."

Last season, Davis missed over two months of action due to a torn ligament in his hand. He returned to the Mets in mid-July, but was far from healthy - opting to tough it out by receiving daily treatment in order to play. Despite his solid numbers, .285/.384/.436 and .820 OPS in 73 games, Davis struggled to catch up to high-velocity pitching due to his hand injury. At the conclusion of the season, Davis underwent surgery to repair the torn ligament in his hand. Now he feels back to normal at the plate, and he's hitting the ball as hard as anyone in MLB with six barrels in 2022. 

"I think having a healthy hand, and working with the hitting coaches to tighten up my swing to get to that 95-97 (mph)," Davis said. "I said it in spring training, having a hurt hand messed with my mechanics. I was dumping the barrel under the ball last year because of my weak hand, where I couldn’t control the barrel. 

"Top hand is more for power when we’re punching it, bottom hand is for control when we’re trying to flatten out the bat. My hand was so weak that it was turning over and I was swinging under balls. Now with a healthy hand, and choking up a bit, has helped me stay direct to the ball."

Davis' name was involved in trade rumors all offseason, but the Mets opted to hang onto him, utilizing the third baseman/DH/lone right-handed bat on the bench in a part-time role. This differs to how Davis was used in the past, starting most games at third base or in left field across the last three seasons. But he delivered a key pinch-hit RBI double in the Mets' historic six-run ninth inning comeback win over the Phillies on May 5. 

J.D. Davis as a pinch hitter for his career:

21-for-70 (.300), 5 2B, 2 HR, 11 RBI, .804 OPS@Metsmerized #Mets #LGM pic.twitter.com/KLLvL8P5xz

— Mathew Brownstein (@MBrownstein89) May 6, 2022

Although Davis has yet to see the results he has hoped for offensively, his advanced metrics indicate that a breakout could be on the horizon. The third baseman/DH is aware of these expected numbers, and intends on trusting the process of his approach. 

"Does it suck that It’s not reflecting your numbers? Yeah. But if I feel confident that I keep the same approach and stay there, good things will happen as I keep having that domino of positive at-bats."

If Davis starts falling into better luck, he could potentially re-capture an every day role with the Mets. He believes the results will come by sticking with his current approach. 

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