New York Mets’ Path to Clinching Postseason Berth

With five games left, the New York Mets are clinging to the second NL Wild Card spot. Here is a roadmap for how they can secure it.

Sep 14, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets designated hitter JD Martinez (28) and center fielder Harrison Bader (44) and manager Carlos Mendoza (64) in the dugout during the third inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

After a two-day hiatus due to Hurricane Helene, the New York Mets return to action on Friday for a pivotal three-game road series against the Milwaukee Brewers.

With just five games left and only two of the three National League Wild Card spots still available, the Mets are locked in a tight race with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves to secure one. The clinching scenarios are numerous and complicated, so here is a clear breakdown to make sense of it all:

The Mets enter Friday’s game in a virtual tie with the Diamondbacks, with both teams holding a one-game lead over the Braves for the final two Wild Card spots. Thanks to a 4-3 edge in their season series, New York holds the tiebreaker over Arizona and can clinch a playoff spot as early as Saturday with any combination of four Mets wins against Milwaukee and Diamondbacks losses to the San Diego Padres. Potential scenarios include:

• Mets sweep the Brewers, and the Diamondbacks win two-of-three against the Padres.
• Mets win two-of-three, and the Diamondbacks lose two-of-three.
• Mets win one-of-three, and the Diamondbacks are swept.

If none of these outcomes occur, the Mets will need to wait until Monday’s doubleheader in Atlanta for another chance to clinch. Fortunately, there is no scenario in which the Mets can be eliminated before Monday; even if the Brewers sweep them and the Braves sweep the Kansas City Royals, Atlanta would only be two games ahead with two head-to-head games remaining, and the tiebreaker still in play. 

Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks could secure their playoff spot by Saturday if they win their next two games and the Braves lose both of theirs. On the other hand, Atlanta cannot clinch until Sunday, and only if they sweep Kansas City and Arizona loses at least twice to San Diego.

There is a chance the National League playoff field could be set by Sunday, with only seeding left to determine. If that happens, the Mets might be able to avoid their scheduled Monday doubleheader in Atlanta before postseason play begins Tuesday, a decision that would ultimately rest with Rob Manfred, the Commissioner of Baseball.

In the meantime, the Mets' focus remains on the immediate task at hand. Star shortstop Francisco Lindor is set to return to the lineup on Friday at 8:10 p.m. ET after missing eight games with lower back discomfort. Sean Manaea will start on the mound, facing a Brewers team that has already clinched its division and is locked into the No. 3 seed. With the Mets’ magic number now at four, every win draws them closer to the postseason. Their October dreams are within reach—one game at a time.