Should Mets Bring Back Bounce-Back Hurler in Free Agency?

The Mets have found something in this pitcher, but can it be sustained?

Oct 16, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets pitcher Luis Severino (40) reacts after an out against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the fifth inning during game three of the NLCS for the 2024 MLB playoffs at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The starting rotation is still a question mark for the New York Mets.

As of now, the only starter guaranteed to be in the 2025 rotation is ace Kodai Senga; fellow starters Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana are all free agents, while David Peterson, Tylor Megill, and Paul Blackburn have been discussed as candidates for bullpen roles. There are additionally a number of top free agent pitchers available, such as Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Max Fried, and the Mets are in the sweepstakes for each.

Of the free agents that spent 2024 in Queens, the Mets are making an effort to bring Manaea back due to his brilliant second-half performance. But what about Severino?

The 30-year-old righty enjoyed a resurgent season with the Mets, tossing 182 innings with a 3.91 ERA, 4.21 FIP, and 1.24 WHIP. In addition to staying healthy, Severino reworked his arsenal with pitching coach Jeremy Hefner; he began using his sinker more often (although his four-same fastball remained his primary offering) while developing a slider with more horizontal movement.

This resulted in the veteran going from a strikeout pitcher to a contact manager, despite still having good velocity overall; however, this change ended up being beneficial for Severino. Even with the reduction in swings and misses, the righty logged a 46.3% ground ball rate and an average exit velocity of just 87.1 mph, while batters only managed to barrel 5.7% of his pitches. Severino's expected ERA and batting average against were also nearly identical to his actual ERA and opposing average, indicating that he's not benefitting from batted ball luck and that the new approach can be sustainable.

What makes Severino risky, however, is his health. The 2024 season was the right-hander's first season since 2018 where he made at least 30 starts; due to a litany of injuries, he threw only 209.1 innings combined from 2019 to 2023, which amounts to just 11 more innings than he pitched in 2024's regular season and postseason combined. Additionally, Severino will turn 31 in February 2025, so it's only a matter of time before age begins to affect his velocity and/or workload. Was Severino's healthy season a true resurgence, or a brief anomaly in a career full of unfortunate injuries?

Severino's righty-lefty splits are also cause for concern. Granted, lefties have always hit him significantly better than righties throughout his career, but his total splits are considerably less extreme than they were in 2024; last season, lefties hit .269/.334/.440 against Severino, as opposed to righties hitting a meager .216/.292/.323.

Currently, Severino is projected to get a four-year, $85 million contract with a $21.4 million AAV on Spotrac; this would be a risky deal given the righty's injury history. However, New York should still make an effort to bring Severino back, as the numbers he put up in his bounce-back year not only appear to be sustainable, but can be improved upon even further with continued development.

The Mets have found something that works with Severino, and as long as he can stay on the field, they should take full advantage of it.