Should Mets Go After This Elite Reliever as a Starter?

With two spots remaining in the Mets' starting rotation, they may look to get creative in free agency.fffff

Jul 16, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; National League pitcher Jeff Hoffman of the Philadelphia Phillies (23) pitches in the eighth inning during the 2024 MLB All-Star game at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

The New York Mets were previously reported to have interest in converting free-agent closer Clay Holmes into a starter, but they may find more upside in stretching out another available reliever.

In early November, ESPN insider Kiley McDaniel reported that several teams have considered pursuing free-agent breakout reliever Jeff Hoffman as a starting pitcher. The former No. 8 overall draft pick was a starter during his college days at East Carolina University and began his professional career in a rotation role.

Hoffman, who turns 32 in January, made his first All-Star appearance in 2024. Since signing a minor league deal in early 2023, the veteran right-hander has quietly emerged as one of the most dominant forces in the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen. Over 118.2 innings, he posted a 2.28 ERA, striking out 33.4% of batters while issuing just a 7.4% walk rate.

Hoffman was selected by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 2014 draft while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He made 13 minor league starts in 2015 before being traded to Colorado in the Troy Tulowitzki deal. Hoffman made his big-league debut with the Rockies in 2016, primarily as a starter (99.1 innings, 4.76 ERA). But after that, injuries and ineffectiveness derailed his career, including two years with the Cincinnati Reds and a brief spring training stint with the Minnesota Twins.

When Hoffman first arrived in Philadelphia, he had a career 5.68 ERA, a 1.58 WHIP, and a 20.3% strikeout rate, while allowing 1.63 home runs per nine innings over 134 appearances (50 starts). Some of his struggles can be attributed to pitching in two of MLB's most hitter-friendly ballparks, Coors Field and Great American Ball Park.

However, in a recent interview with McDaniel, Hoffman suggested that his early struggles were more a result of being overly receptive to suggested mechanical adjustments.

"When I stopped thinking about 'Where's my front side?' or 'When is my heel on the ground?' and all that B.S., I was able to improve my command, my velocity got better and I'm not necessarily trying to throw hard now, that's just how it's coming out," Hoffman told McDaniel. "My body is moving the way I want to move."

In 2024, Hoffman posted 10 saves across 68 appearances, finishing with a career-best 2.17 ERA and a 12.08 K/9 rate in 66.1 innings. Ironically, he struggled against the Mets in the NLDS, suffering losses in Games 1 and 4 while allowing three runs in each. However, he did toss six shutout innings of relief, striking out eight and walking none, in the 2023 NLCS.

Unlike many starters who slim down their pitch arsenal when transitioning to a relief role, Hoffman continues to rely on a four-pitch mix. He throws a four-seam fastball 39% of the time, while mixing in a slider (40.8%), splitter (12%), and sinker (8.2%).

Since joining the Phillies, Hoffman’s delivery and stuff have returned to the level that made him a highly sought-after draft prospect. Notably, he has added 4-5 mph to his slider since the 2022 season, which helped turn it into his signature pitch. As noted by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors, Hoffman’s slider produced a 20.6% swinging-strike rate and has limited opponents to a .160/.201/.215 batting line when it finished off a plate appearance since Opening Day 2023.

When considering why free agent Jeff Hoffman is getting attention as a starter, I dug into my old scouting notes/video for this dandy from the Cape on July 17, 2013.

7.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 11 K

He was sitting 93-97 mph with life, dropping hammers and mixing in a few changeups. pic.twitter.com/dJPWK5BMxN

— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) November 20, 2024

Hoffman has not exceeded 100 innings in a season since 2019, creating some injury risk if stretched into a starting role. Former Mets reliever Seth Lugo provides a recent success story, jumping from 65 innings with the 2022 Mets to 146 innings with the 2023 San Diego Padres and 206 innings with the 2024 Kansas City Royals, where he finished second in AL Cy Young voting.

However, pitchers like Jordan Hicks serve as a cautionary tale. After signing a four-year, $44 million deal with the San Francisco Giants last offseason with the intention of becoming a full-time starter, Hicks ended up returning to a bullpen role in July. On the other hand, even if Hoffman’s transition doesn’t pay off as well as Lugo’s, the soon-to-be 32-year-old could always revert to his dominant late-inning role.

Meanwhile, Clay Holmes was also brought up through the minor leagues as a starter, having last appeared in that role during his 2018 debut season with the Pittsburgh Pirates. He became a two-time All-Star closer with the New York Yankees but struggled in 2024, leading MLB with 13 blown saves. 

Though Holmes has a three-pitch mix, he has never surpassed 70 innings in a season, making any move to the rotation more of a risk. He also lacks Hoffman’s swing-and-miss stuff, relying instead on his 64.6% ground-ball rate to get outs.

In his interview with McDaniel, Hoffman seemed open to either starting or relieving, stating that above all, he wants to land with a contender. However, given that this may be his first—and potentially last—chance at a major free-agent contract as he enters his age-32 season, the opportunity to start would likely provide the most guaranteed money.

So far, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns has avoided handing out large contracts to starting pitchers. His most recent move was signing right-hander Frankie Montas to a two-year, $34 million deal, rather than giving Luis Severino the three-year, $67 million contract he received from the A’s after an impressive one-year stint in Queens. 

With top-tier starters like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried still on the market, a more affordable, high-upside option like Hoffman could fit the profile of a typical Stearns move as he looks to add rotation depth. Left-handers Sean Manaea and José Quintana are also free agents, leaving two clear voids in the Mets’ rotation.