Inside The Mets

State of the Mets: June

After a truly Amazin' month, the Mets have catapulted back into the playoff race.

Joe Najarian

Jun 30, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets center fielder Brandon Nimmo (9) celebrates in the dugout after hitting a two run home run to tie the game in the seventh inning against the Houston Astros at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 30, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets center fielder Brandon Nimmo (9) celebrates in the dugout after hitting a two run home run to tie the game in the seventh inning against the Houston Astros at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports / Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
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State of the New York Mets
March Record: 0-3
April Record: 15-11
May Record: 9-19
June Record: 16-8
Record entering July: 40-41
Games Behind in NL East: 13.5
Games Behind NL Wild Card: 2.0

It was a simply Amazin' June for the New York Mets.

One of the Mets' defining traits in their history is the uncanny ability to defy the odds when things looked bleak. This year's team was certainly in a rut entering the month, as they were reeling from an abysmal May that left them almost five games out of a playoff spot; this scenario was made even worse due to the amount of fellow competitors for the third NL Wild Card spot that they had to surpass.

There were plenty of factors at play; some of them realistic, some of them supernatural. The return of Francisco Alvarez did wonders for the Mets. J.D. Martinez's hot streak was incredibly important as well. Maybe getting Grimace to throw out the first pitch had some magic to it. But regardless, the outlook of New York's season completely changed over the course of June.

Despite losing their first two games of the month to split a four-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Mets picked themselves back up with a three-game sweep against the Washington Nationals, with veteran call-up Jose Iglesias filling in for Jeff McNeil. New York then split a two-game series against the division-leading Philadelphia Phillies, winning the second game thanks to an amazing game-ending double play by newly-acquired catcher Luis Torrens.

After an uninspiring loss to the last-place Miami Marlins on June 11, the fateful Grimace first pitch occured the next day; the Mets promptly exploded for 10 runs in a win, then won the series on Martinez's first career walk-off home run the next night. Those two wins sparked a seven-game winning streak that included a sweep over the San Diego Padres and a series win over the defending champion Texas Rangers. The Mets lost their last series of the month against the Houston Astros at home, but not before taking two of three from the Chicago Cubs and sweeping the crosstown rival New York Yankees out of Citi Field.

With a new month ahead, New York is now firmly back in the playoff hunt. Sitting nine games below .500 entering June, that number shrank to one game entering July. They leapfrogged almost every fellow Wild Card competitor in the standings, and now trail the St. Louis Cardinals by just two games for the third Wild Card spot.

The main catalyst of the Mets' winning ways was a relentless lineup, with everyone making key contributions. Shortstop Francisco Lindor has firmly bounced back from an awful start to the year and has repaired his slash line to .248/.313/.438 with a 117 wRC+; with 13 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and his usual outstanding defense, Lindor leads the team with 3.3 fWAR. Mark Vientos has emerged as the possible third baseman of the future, ranking third on the team with 1.5 fWAR in just 38 games; he's hitting .295/.356/.576 with 10 home runs and a 165 wRC+, with two of those homers coming off reigning AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole on June 25. Outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Harrison Bader have 2.7 and 1.3 fWAR on the year, respectively, with Nimmo hitting .315/.406/.598 with a 187 wRC+ during the month. Finally, first baseman Pete Alonso pounded seven doubles and five homers, on his way to a .898 OPS and 157 wRC+.

The two most valuable players of the month, though, are designated hitter J.D. Martinez and catcher Francisco Alvarez. Regarding the former, Martinez fully ramped himself up after being a late free agent signing and was on fire throughout the month; he hit .272/.385/.489 with a 155 wRC+ and 20 RBI, and even hit his first career walk-off homer on June 13. He was named NL Player of the Week from June 10 to June 16 after recording an astounding 1.643 OPS. As for Alvarez, he returned from injury on June 11 (one day before Grimace) and hit .375/.456/.667 with eight extra-base hits, 12 RBI, and a 216 wRC+.

Alvarez's return also directly coincided with immediate improvement from the pitching staff. The starting rotation is led by Luis Severino and Sean Manaea, with the former going 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA during the month, striking out 20 batters while walking just five; Severino leads Mets pitchers with a 1.2 fWAR. Although Manaea struggled during the month, he has a 3.81 FIP on the season in addition to a 3.89 ERA, and has a strikeout rate of 23.6%. The return of David Peterson has also helped, as the Mets won all four games he started during June; he currently has a 3.67 ERA in five starts this year.

Finally, the bullpen stabilized at the beginning of the month due to the return of Edwin Diaz from injury. Despite eventually getting a 10-game suspension due to pitching with foreign substances, Diaz did not allow a run in any of his appearances to retake the closer role. Reed Garrett is still a dependable setup man who is also capable of closing games. Adam Ottavino bounced back from a rough May as well, logging a 3.18 ERA in 12 appearances. However, the bullpen fell on hard times as June came to a close, most notably by allowing five 11th inning runs against the Astros on Sunday; even then, the Mets can certainly pursue bullpen help at the deadline.

Speaking of the deadline, New York should aim to be buyers at the trade deadline after their brilliant June performance. A playoff spot is within their grasp, and all they have to do now is reach for it. The team can certainly use another pitcher or quality bat in the lineup for consistency's sake; even if they choose to sell high on one of their starters, they can simply plug in Kodai Senga, who is on his way back and should make his season debut after the All-Star break.

In the end, all the bad vibes that May brought completely evened out in June; talks of Pete Alonso being traded have died down considerably, the team's energy is off the charts, and the goals of evaluation and competition are being fulfilled. It takes a lot for the entire outlook of a season to change in the span of a month, but the Mets have given their fans legitimate reasons to be hopeful.

As said in the previous State of the Mets, the team needed a miracle. They got it.

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Joe Najarian

JOE NAJARIAN

Joe Najarian is a Rutgers University graduate from the Class of 2022. After an eight-month stint with Jersey Sporting News (JSN), covering Rutgers Football, Rutgers Basketball, and Rutgers Baseball, Najarian became a contributing writer on Inside the Pinstripes and Inside the Mets. He additionally writes on Giants Country, FanNation’s site for the New York Giants. Follow Joe on Twitter @JoeNajarian

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