The Eight Playoff Scenarios For the New York Mets

There are eight ways for the Mets to punch their ticket to the postseason, and some are much harder than others.

Sep 28, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20), right fielder Tyrone Taylor (15), second baseman Eddy Alvarez (26) and third baseman Mark Vientos (27) watch in the eighth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images / Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

It's officially do-or-die for the New York Mets.

New York will have three games to play in a span of two days to conclude the regular season, as they battle the Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks for the final two Wild Card spots in the National League. The Mets, who have a 87-72 record entering Sunday, will complete a three-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers before taking on the Braves in a climactic doubleheader on Monday.

The past two days have shifted momentum to the Braves, as they won their first two games of their series against the Kansas City Royals; on the other hand, the Mets lost their first two games to the Brewers. As a result, Atlanta can clinch a playoff spot with a win on Sunday.

However, the Mets currently hold the upper hand over the Diamondbacks, who also lost their first two games to the San Diego Padres; if both teams finish with identical records, New York would be awarded the tiebreaker due to winning the season series over Arizona.

Finally, Monday's doubleheader will decide the season series between the Mets and Braves, which would serve as the tiebreaker if both teams finish with identical records; Atlanta currently is ahead of New York by one game.

With all of this in mind, there are eight possible scenarios that can occur over the next two days; four of them involve the Mets winning on Sunday, while the other four involve a loss. It is worth mentioning, though, that New York can potentially clinch a Wild Card spot on Sunday, but cannot be eliminated from the playoffs until Monday. Here is each scenario for the Mets:

• If the Mets win and both the Braves and Diamondbacks lose, New York and Atlanta would both clinch playoff spots while Arizona would be eliminated. Monday's doubleheader would then determine which team gets the fifth and sixth seed.

• The same scenario from above applies if the Mets and Braves win but the Diamondbacks lose.

• If the Mets and Diamondbacks win but the Braves lose, both New York and Atlanta could clinch a playoff spot by splitting Monday's doubleheader. If either team sweeps the doubleheader, Arizona clinches the last spot and the loser is eliminated.

• If the Mets, Braves, and Diamondbacks all win, Atlanta would clinch a playoff spot. New York would then need to win at least one game against the Braves on Monday to clinch a spot of their own; getting swept would result in elimination and Arizona clinching the last spot.

• The same scenario from above applies if the Mets and Diamondbacks both lose; the Braves would clinch a playoff spot regardless if they win or lose their game.

• If the Mets and Braves lose but the Diamondbacks win, Arizona would clinch a playoff spot. New York would then need to sweep Atlanta on Monday; a loss would eliminate the Mets and clinch a spot for the Braves.

• If the Mets lose and both the Braves and Diamondbacks win, Atlanta would clinch a playoff spot. New York would then need to sweep Atlanta on Monday; a loss would eliminate the Mets and clinch a spot for the Diamondbacks.

The Braves seem to have the most favorable odds as five of the eight scenarios result in a guaranteed playoff spot for them. In sharp contrast, the Diamondbacks do not control their destiny in any of these scenarios and are the only team of the three that can be eliminated outright on Sunday.

Needless to say, the odds are significantly more in the Mets' favor if they can beat the Brewers; it's the only outcome New York can control, and they should enter the game with that mindset.