Inside The Mets

The real reason Pete Alonso is expected to thrive in free agency

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s extension may benefit Pete Alonso in free agency, but it's not the biggest factor driving his market.

John Sparaco

Apr 8, 2025; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) reacts after hitting a three RBI double during the sixth inning against the Miami Marlins at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Apr 8, 2025; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) reacts after hitting a three RBI double during the sixth inning against the Miami Marlins at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
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If New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso triggers his opt-out clause after the 2025 season, the free-agent market could treat him much differently than what everyone saw just months ago.

When Toronto Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed his 14-year, $500 million extension on April 9, it marked a monumental shift for first basemen. The deal, which is the third-largest in MLB history, reset the market for a position group that has not been valued highly in recent years.

Guerrero’s average annual value of $35.2 million topped Alonso’s record for the highest one-year figure for a first baseman ($30 million) and certainly shatters the $24 million he would make in 2026 if he does not opt out. In a recent MLB Network segment, Joel Sherman and Brian Kenny discussed the impact of Guerrero’s deal on Alonso’s free agency.

“The most important thing for Pete Alonso is not Vlad Guerrero, it’s not having the qualifying offer on him for next year, which I think hurt him,” Sherman said. Qualifying offers can only be made to a player once in their career, meaning the other 29 teams will not have to worry about forfeiting a high draft pick if they sign him.

Alonso, who turns 31 in December, has a career OPS+ of 135, just behind Guerrero’s 137, since both entered the league in 2019. Their defensive and baserunning metrics are also comparable, but the main difference is age. Guerrero just celebrated his 26th birthday in March.

Read More: Ex-Mets 1B Mo Vaughn offers advice to free agent first basemen

Sherman pointed out that Alonso’s age, athleticism, and poor defensive metrics also impacted how he was viewed this past winter—and might still make some teams hesitant to offer a long-term deal. But Kenny countered by highlighting his offensive numbers.

“The last five years, he’s slugged like .498. If he’s slugging .570, he’s a completely different Polar Bear,” Kenny said. Both also credited his best ability—availability—and said if he produces at the level he is capable of offensively, he could secure a better deal without the qualifying offer attached.

Coming off a down season by his standards in 2024, Alonso is off to a scorching start at the plate, batting behind Juan Soto in the Mets’ lineup. Entering Sunday, the four-time All-Star is hitting .347/.450/.714 (1.164 OPS) with four home runs and 18 RBIs through 14 games.

While that pace will be difficult to maintain over the course of a 162-game season, Alonso appears poised for a monster campaign early on.

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John Sparaco
JOHN SPARACO

John Sparaco is a contributing writer for the Mets website On SI. He has previously written for Cold Front Report, Times Union and JKR Baseball, where he profiled some of the top recruits, college players and draft prospects in baseball. You can follow him on Twitter/X: @JohnSparaco

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