Vladimir Guerrero Jr’s recent contract request may price out the Mets

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s recent contract request may be more than the New York Mets are willing to pay.

Mike Phillips | Mar 7, 2025

Mar 6, 2025; Dunedin, Florida, USA; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) looks on from the dugout against the Boston Red Sox in the fourth inning during spring training at TD Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

In this story:

The New York Mets shocked the baseball world when they reset the market for position players by signing outfielder Juan Soto to a record-setting 15-year, $765 million contract in December. The fallout from Soto's deal is likely to shape free agent negotiations for years to come, with the next superstar looking to cash in being Toronto Blue Jays' first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Guerrero, 25, is set to test free agency this winter after failing to agree to terms with the Blue Jays on a long-term extension. Recent reporting from ESPN's Jeff Passan indicates that Guerrero is using Soto's deal as a template for his own potential contract, suggesting terms around 15 years and under $600 million in total.

Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. told @Enrique_Rojas1 and @EJerezESPN that he proposed a contract to the Blue Jays for 15 years and less than $600 million. More from Vlad Jr., free and unlocked at ESPN: https://t.co/TBqhK8Rjyz
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 7, 2025

Despite this indication from Passan, Guerrero refuted his sky-high salary expectations in an interview with ESPN's Enrique Rojas and Ernesto Jerez.

"It's much less than Soto. We're talking about many fewer millions than Soto, more than a hundred million less," Guerrero said. "It was the same number of years [as Soto's contract], but it didn't reach [$600 million]. The last number we gave them as a counteroffer didn't reach 600."

Taking Guerrero at his word, let's assume that he was asking the Blue Jays for at least $550 million over 15 years; this would be an average annual value of $36.67 million per year. While there is a chance Guerrero, who is just 25 years old, could get this type of deal on the open market, it probably won't be from the Mets.

Owner Steve Cohen has made public comments recently about how the organization has to be very careful handing out long-term contracts since it can limit the team's flexibility in the future. Giving Guerrero a 15-year deal would mean the Mets have three significant long-term deals on their books for Guerrero, Soto, and Francisco Lindor (who is playing on a 10-year, $341 million contract).

Steve Cohen said the Mets have to be "really careful" about potentially adding a long-term contract next winter because of the squeeze it would put on roster flexibility.
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) February 18, 2025

President of Baseball Operations David Stearns also threw cold water on the idea of another generational contract recently, telling Pablo Torre in a podcast interview that "in terms of these generational contracts, you probably have one shot to shoot."

New York Mets president David Stearns on giving Juan Soto the biggest contract in sports history:

"Regardless of how deep an organization's pockets are, you can't do multiple of these. In terms of these generational types of contracts, you probably have one shot to shoot." pic.twitter.com/ODqCpfwnf7
— Pablo Torre Finds Out (@pablofindsout) February 11, 2025

Even if Guerrero was willing to agree to the aforementioned 15-year, $550 million deal, the Mets would have over $142 million committed on the luxury tax to just four players (Soto, Guerrero, Lindor and Brandon Nimmo) through 2030, when Nimmo's contract expires.

Cohen would also have to be committed to staying deep in the luxury tax every year for that time span to field a really competitive team, which is something he has indicated isn't a sustainable long-term strategy even for someone with his wealth.

The Mets are projected to spend over $1.6 billion on payroll and luxury tax between 2022 and 2025, with almost $300 million of that equating to luxury tax spending. While the Los Angeles Dodgers are operating with multiple generational contracts, Shohei Ohtani's heavily-deferred deal is a bit of a cheat code.

The value proposition of paying Guerrero, who is an elite hitter limited to first base for the long haul, also isn't good because the Mets will likely need the position in the future for either Mark Vientos (if they decide to slide him across the diamond) or Soto, who may be destined for a position shift in his 30s.

Given the commentary of key decision makers, this contract ask likely takes the Mets out of play for Guerrero in the long haul. The Mets aren't in bad shape at first base either, with Pete Alonso under contract now and several viable internal options for the near term, albeit without the immense offensive upside Guerrero offers.

Recommended Articles: