What Are The Mets' Playoff Chances?

The Mets are fittingly battling with a longtime rival for the last available playoff spot.

Sep 13, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo (9) celebrates with third base Mark Vientos (27) and shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) after hitting a three run home run during the fifth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

As Major League Baseball's regular season winds down, the New York Mets are in a playoff battle for the ages.

Despite dropping two-of-three to the NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies (who currently have the best record in baseball), the Mets are still tied with another hated division rival, the Atlanta Braves, for the third and final Wild Card spot; both teams will play a three-game series at Truist Park from September 24-26, which will determine the winner of the head-to-head series and serve as a tiebreaker if both teams finish with identical records.

This series, in all likelihood, will determine whether the Mets make the postseason or not, as the sixth seed is currently the only playoff spot that the team controls their destiny for.

On PlayoffStatus.com, the Mets have a less than 1% chance to earn either the first, second, or third seeds in the National League, which are given to division winners; after their series loss to Philadelphia, New York trails them by nine games with just 13 games left to play, while the Phillies' magic number for claiming the NL East is down to five. At this point, winning the division is a completely unrealistic scenario, barring a "Phold" by the Phillies that hasn't been seen since 1964.

As for the fourth and fifth seeds (top two Wild Card spots), those are currently held by the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks, respectively. The Mets have the head-to-head tiebreaker over both teams, but do not control their destiny for either spot; the Padres are ahead by 3.5 games, while the Diamondbacks have a two-game advantage. It's not impossible for the Mets to chase down either team, but they would still need help from other teams to claim those spots even if they won all of their remaining games. As a result, New York has a 2% chance at the fourth seed and a 15% chance at the fifth seed; San Diego's magic number to clinch is eight, while Arizona's is 10.

Finally, the Mets have a 28% chance at claiming the sixth and last seed, with a 54% chance of missing the playoffs entirely. In contrast, the Braves have a 38% chance of claiming the spot for themselves, with just a 35% chance of being on the outside looking in. Even though both teams are tied and have a decisive series against each other coming up, the Braves seem to have the advantage.

This is due to the Mets having a tougher remaining schedule than Atlanta; New York is in the middle of a 10-day stretch without a day off, with all of their games against division opponents. On Monday, they will begin a seven-game homestand against the Washington Nationals and Phillies; although the Nationals have been eliminated from playoff contention, this is counterbalanced by the Phillies being the top seed in the NL. After this homestand is completed, the Mets will play their remaining six games on the road against the Braves and the Milwaukee Brewers; the latter currently leads the NL Central and will likely be the Mets' opponent in the Wild Card series if they claim the last Wild Card spot.

On the other hand, the Braves will finish a four-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday, but their schedule over the rest of the week is considerably easier. Although the Dodgers are currently leading the NL West, Atlanta's opponents before facing the Mets are the Cincinnati Reds and Miami Marlins; the former have their playoff hopes on life support, while the latter are in dead last in both the NL East and the National League as a whole. After facing the Mets, the Braves will host the Kansas City Royals for three games to conclude the regular season; although Kansas City is a tough opponent, the Braves have the luxury of playing them at home, as opposed to the Mets playing the similarly tough Brewers on the road.

With all of this information in mind, the Mets appear to be on the outside looking in for this epic playoff race. However, throughout their history, the Mets have managed to defy the odds in the face of adversity; this reputation has continued in this season, as New York overcame a brutal May by posting the second-best record of any team since June 1 (behind only the Diamondbacks) with a 57-35 record.

As such, the Mets aren't concerned with the other teams in the race, as the only games they can control are their own. With a magic number of 12, New York will look to begin the homestretch of the regular season on the right foot, as they host the Nationals at Citi Field; first pitch is at 7:10 PM ET.