What Is The Mets' Biggest Surprise This Year?

The Mets' season has been full of unexpected events and revelations, but which is the biggest?

Sep 21, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets pitcher Sean Manaea (59) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Boland-Imagn Images / Lucas Boland-Imagn Images

No matter how it ends, the New York Mets' 2024 season has been unforgettable.

The year has seen a number of twists and turns, but the Mets control their path to the postseason and can clinch a Wild Card spot as early as Saturday. MVP-caliber play from shortstop Francisco Lindor, the breakout season of Mark Vientos, and the return of Edwin Diaz have all contributed to New York's success.

But what is the biggest surprise in a year full of them? According to Bleacher Report's Zachary Rymer, the "biggest shocker" of the Mets season comes from the starting rotation - not from any given member, but as a collective.

"Contrary to the star-studded roster they arranged for 2023, the Mets came into this year with a few core stars paired with a gaggle of temps," Rymer wrote. "Nowhere was that more evident than in the rotation, which was not projected to be very good.

"It has held its own throughout 2024, however, and now it has a 2.44 ERA in 24 games since August 29. Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and José Quintana, each of whom is likely to file for free agency in a few weeks' time, are all hot at the same time."

These three free agents to-be were rightfully acknowledged for their contributions this season. Even more noteworthy is that Quintana is the only one of the three to have been on the Mets last season, as both Severino and Manaea were signed as free agents during the offseason.

Quintana, who made only 13 starts last year, has toed the rubber 30 times and hurled 166 innings; however, he has allowed just two runs over his last five starts and 32 frames, alongside 20 strikeouts against nine walks. Serving as an effective innings-eater for most of the year, the lefty has lowered his ERA to 3.74 thanks to this timely string of excellent performances.

Severino, who came over from the cross-town Yankees, has pitched 182 innings and started 31 games as of September 27; he hadn't approached either of those totals since the 2018 season. The righty has also logged a 3.91 ERA while demonstrating improved control from his past seasons, with a 7.9% walk rate against a 21.2% strikeout rate. While Severino has dealt with consistency issues in the second half of the year, the fact that he's stayed healthy has been an asset in itself.

Finally, Manaea has a 2.63 ERA since July 30 and has pitched into the seventh inning in all but one of those 11 starts. On the season, he's thrown 178 innings with a 3.29 ERA and 3.75 FIP, while leading New York's pitchers with 2.8 fWAR. This second-half brilliance has been a major factor behind the Mets' surge into playoff contention.

The contributions of Quintana, Severino, and Manaea are even more important when injuries are factored into the equation; the Mets lost their ace, Kodai Senga, for effectively the whole season due to a rash of injuries, while top prospect Christian Scott underwent Tommy John surgery to end his year. Despite all of these setbacks, New York's rotation has remained intact.

Last season, the Mets had a star-studded rotation led by Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, but it ended up crumbling to the point where both of these veterans were traded away. This season, despite low expectations from pundits, New York has gotten exactly what they need from their starters, and it could result in them playing October baseball.