What New York Mets Must Do to Clinch a Postseason Spot in September

The Mets trail the Braves by only one game with 25 left to play in the regular season.

Sep 1, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; New York Mets players celebrates after defeating the Chicago White Sox in a baseball game at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Everything that could have gone right for the New York Mets over the weekend did. 

The Mets return home to Citi Field on Monday after going 7-3 during a crucial 10-game road trip. After splitting a four-game series with the Padres, the Mets won two out of three against the Diamondbacks and then swept the White Sox.

Shortstop Francisco Lindor described the White Sox series as “tough” to maintain intensity for, given it was at the tail end of a long road trip and in front of a crowd that had understandably lost interest in its 31-107 team. Nonetheless, the Mets handled their business, and with help from a division rival, they moved within one game of the third and final NL Wild Card spot over the weekend. 

The Phillies took three out of four from the Braves, who currently hold the third NL Wild Card spot. With the Mets winning three straight in Chicago, their deficit in the standings shrank from four games to just one. The road ahead doesn’t get any easier for the Mets, who fought their way out of a 24-33 start to reach this point. With 25 games left, New York’s next test will be against the Boston Red Sox, which will be as close to a playoff series as one can find this time of year. 

Boston is in a similarly desperate position in the American League. They enter Monday 4.5 games out of the final AL Wild Card spot, making this a must-win series to keep their slim postseason hopes alive. According to Fangraphs, the Red Sox have a 15.5% chance of making the playoffs, while the Mets have 29.2% odds. 

At their current pace, the Braves (74-63) are projected to finish with 87 wins, meaning the Mets (73-64) would likely need to go at least 15-10 over their final 25 games to have a shot at the postseason. The two teams will meet again in Atlanta for a three-game series starting on Sept. 24, the second-to-last series of the regular season. They’ve split their previous 10 head-to-head matchups, so the winner of the next series will earn the tiebreaker, which could be crucial if both teams finish with the same record. The Mets already hold the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks (first NL Wild Card), Padres (second NL Wild Card), and Cubs (two games behind New York). 

On paper, Atlanta’s remaining schedule looks easier than New York’s, with more than half of their remaining opponents holding records below .500. The Braves begin a three-game home series with the Rockies (51-87) on Tuesday. Meanwhile, in addition to what essentially amounts to two playoff series against the Red Sox and Braves, the Mets will also face the division-leading Phillies (81-56) and Brewers (80-57) over the final month.

Veteran right-hander Luis Severino (3.96 ERA) will take the mound for the Mets against Red Sox homegrown star Brayan Bello (4.66 ERA) on Monday night. David Peterson (2.83 ERA) and Tylor Megill (4.82 ERA) are slated to pitch the final two games for New York.