Which Starters Should The Mets Bring Back to Shore up Rotation?

New York Mets' starting pitchers Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and José Quintana are all set to become free agents this winter.

Oct 17, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets pitcher Jose Quintana (62) reacts after giving up a home run against Los Angeles Dodgers two-way player Shohei Ohtani (17) in the first inning during game four of the NLCS for the 2024 MLB playoffs at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

With three of their top starters poised to enter free agency this winter, the New York Mets may search elsewhere to fill their rotation in 2025 and beyond. But that should not prevent them from looking internally first.

Names like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell, and 22-year-old Japanese phenom Rōki Sasaki could become available, tempting Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns to go star hunting. However, this would mark a shift from his typical strategy.

Stearns has historically preferred to acquire starters through trade, the draft, or short-term contracts, never committing more than two years to a free-agent pitcher during his tenure as a decision-maker with the Brewers and Mets.

It is worth noting that Milwaukee operates on a much smaller budget than what owner Steve Cohen provides in New York. When Stearns joined the Mets last October, the team was transitioning from a 75-87 season that involved offloading two massive contracts—Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. The Mets committed to low-risk moves and avoided expensive free agents, but those affordable signings were crucial to their turnaround, taking them to the NLCS.

Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and José Quintana—all added on short-term deals over the last two seasons (Manaea and Severino by Stearns, Quintana by ex-GM Billy Eppler) —accounted for 37% of the club’s innings in 2024. This veteran trio collectively made 94 starts with a 3.71 ERA during the regular season, each starting at least three games in the postseason.

But which starters should they retain? Let’s take a closer look at all three.

Sean Manaea
The 32-year-old left-hander is expected to decline his $13.5 million player option in hopes of securing a long-term deal after signing two consecutive “prove-it” contracts. 

After showing top-end starter potential with the Athletics, Manaea struggled with the Padres and Giants, even moving to the bullpen at one point in 2023, but finished strong with a 2.25 ERA in four September starts.

In New York, he pitched a career-high 181.2 innings, plus 19 in the postseason, posting a 12-6 record, 3.47 ERA, 24.9% strikeout rate, and 8.5% walk rate during the regular season. Though he ran out of gas in the Mets’ NLCS Game 6 defeat, he allowed just five runs in 17 innings across his first three postseason starts (2.65 ERA).

“I've loved my time here,” Manaea said after the Mets were eliminated in Game 6 of the NLCS. “I love New York. I love the organization. I love all the people here. I would definitely love to be back.”

Verdict: Re-sign Manaea to a three-year deal. He reinvented himself in New York by increasing his sinker/sweeper usage and revamping his arm angle, which should lead to continued success.

Luis Severino
Severino also reinvented himself as a Met. When he signed a one-year, $13 million deal last offseason, the two-time All-Star and former Yankees’ ace appeared to be trending downward, having surpassed 100 innings only once in the last five seasons due to injuries. In 2023, he posted a 6.65 ERA in 18 starts.

The Mets’ training staff helped him stay on the field, and he went 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over 182 innings in 31 starts. He added three October starts, going 1-1 with a 3.24 ERA and 13 strikeouts in 16.2 innings.

With the Mets, Severino embraced his sinker and introduced a sweeper as a putaway pitch. Opponents hit just .139 against his sweeper with a 38.6% whiff rate in 2024, according to Statcast.

Verdict: Bring back Severino on a two-year deal, but only if they do not land a high-priced starter like Burnes or Fried to pair with Manaea.

José Quintana
Quintana, turning 36 in January, pitched 170.1 innings with a 3.75 ERA for the Mets in 2024 during the final year of a two-year, $26 million deal. 

Over the last five weeks of the season, he led the majors with a 0.74 ERA in six starts and finished the season with an 18.8% strikeout rate and an 8.8% walk rate. In three postseason starts, he went 0-1 with a 3.14 ERA

While the left-hander has proven to be a reliable innings eater, his four-seamer ranks in the ninth percentile, and of the 157 pitchers who logged at least 180 innings in 2024, no one threw a lower percentage of pitches that finished inside the strike zone (33.7). This suggests the Mets can find a younger, cheaper alternative.

Verdict: Let him walk.