Why Mets Have Another Breakout Candidate on Their Roster

The Mets have a few spots to fill in their 2025 starting rotation, but at least one breakout candidate is already on their roster.

Oct 16, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets pitcher Tylor Megill (38) throws a pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the seventh inning during game three of the NLCS for the 2024 MLB playoffs at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

The New York Mets face plenty of uncertainty in their starting rotation heading into 2025.

Three of their top starters from 2024—Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and José Quintana—are free agents. Kodai Senga made just one regular-season start after being hampered by shoulder, calf, and triceps injuries, while trade deadline acquisition Paul Blackburn could miss the start of spring training after undergoing a cerebrospinal fluid leak repair in October, making both pitchers question marks.

That leaves right-hander Tylor Megill and left-handed swingman David Peterson as arguably the safest bets to fill spots at the back end of the Mets’ rotation. Both have been inconsistent throughout their big league careers, but flashes of strong performance in 2024, particularly late in the season, offer optimism that they could become key contributors moving forward.

Peterson, 29, went 10-3 with a 2.90 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and a 7.5 K/9 rate in 21 regular-season starts. He posted a 2.92 ERA in a mostly relief role during October. While those numbers appear better than Megill’s at first glance, underlying metrics suggest that Megill may have more upside. 

Megill, also 29, entered 2024 with a career 4.72 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 rate, and 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings through his first three seasons. However, in 16 appearances (15 starts) this past season, he posted a career-best 4.04 ERA over 78 innings, with an improved WHIP of 1.31. His strikeout rate surged from 18.5% in 2023 to 27% in 2024, and he allowed just 0.92 home runs per nine innings.

One of Megill’s standout moments came on May 28, when he tossed seven scoreless innings against the eventual World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers, striking out nine while allowing only three hits and a walk. In September, he posted a 2.45 ERA over five starts—including a key 100-pitch performance in the season finale doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves, where he threw 5.2 innings of three-run ball to help clinch a Wild Card spot in Game 1. 

Megill expanded his pitch mix from five to eight in 2024, adding a cutter, sweeper, and an especially effective sinker that produced a +7 run value. Over the final month of the regular season, he drastically increased his sinker usage against right-handed hitters, which helped fuel his success.

Tylor Megill is an enigma!

Since being recalled on August 30, Megill has been fantastic, posting a 1.69 ERA and 2.09 FIP across 21.1 IP. He drastically increased his sinker usage against RHH

The results have been great, and the stuff supports the production! pic.twitter.com/TPUJqNMzu4

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) September 18, 2024

According to Statcast, he also added six inches of vertical drop to his splitter/forkball, a pitch he began experimenting with in 2023 but threw 99 more times this past season. It generated a 42.9% whiff rate.

Tylor Megill, Filthy 86mph American Spork. 🇺🇸🍴🥄 pic.twitter.com/rzZfgNbOij

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 28, 2024

His four-seam fastball had a -7 run value in 2023, but it became a positive pitch with a +2 rating in 2024. Its velocity increased from an average of 94.9 mph to 95.7 mph, and its whiff rate improved to 29.2%, after generating the worst rate in his repertoire (18.6%) in 2023.

While Peterson could also factor into New York’s rotation plans—depending on the team's offseason moves and his performance in spring training—his expected ERA (xERA) in 2024 was 4.58, suggesting that his 2.90 ERA was inflated by favorable batted-ball luck. 

The disparity between actual ERA and xERA, similar to fielding independent pitching (FIP), indicates that Peterson may not replicate the same level of success in 2025. In contrast, Megill's xERA was only 0.18 points higher than his actual ERA, underscoring his encouraging underlying performance.

That said, Megill’s 2024 season was not without its challenges. After the Mets acquired Blackburn in August, Megill was sent down to Triple-A before returning to the majors as an injury replacement. He also allowed five runs in just 4.1 innings of relief during the postseason, so he is by no means a guaranteed fixture in the starting rotation.

Pitching development is rarely linear, but given Megill’s impressive stuff and the growth he showed in key metrics, he appears well-positioned to take the next step forward in 2025.