Could Star Closer's Glaring Flaw Haunt Washington Nationals This Season?
The Washington Nationals surprised a lot of people early in the MLB offseason when they decided to non-tender their closer Kyle Finnegan.
Their bullpen was already light on established late-game options, so willingly moving on from him was viewed as a head-scratching decision, especially with the year he put together in 2024.
Finnegan recorded a career-high 38 saves, earning his first All-Star appearance.
He made 65 appearances, throwing 63.2 innings with 60 strikeouts and a 3.68 ERA.
Projected to earn $8.6 million in arbitration, the Nationals approached their closer about working out a deal prior to the hearing.
When nothing was agreed upon, they decided it was in their best interest to move on, which is why he was non-tendered.
It ended up being the right move, as Finnegan was met with a surprisingly cold market.
Despite his credentials as a very solid closer, no one signed him throughout the winter.
As a result, Washington brought him back into the fold on Feb. 27 when spring training was set to get underway.
It was a move viewed very highly by some in the industry, since the Nationals waited out the relief pitching market and landed a bona fide closer for $2.6 million less than what his arbitration was projected to be by signing him to a one-year, $6 million contract.
He now joins a remade bullpen that features fellow free agent additions Jorge Lopez and Lucas Sims. Holdover Jose A. Ferrer looks poised to emerge as a late-game weapon, and the team has high hopes for Evan Reifert, who was selected in the Rule 5 Draft away from the Tampa Bay Rays.
But why did other teams not go after him this winter based on his track record?
It could be his penchant for giving up the long ball.
“The Nationals' closer gives up too many home runs, yes, and until that four-years-running trend ends, he'll never ascend into the elite-reliever tier,” wrote Jeff Passan of ESPN.
Finnegan has given up 40 home runs in his career with a 1.2 HR/9.
His 3.3% home run rate allowed is slightly above the league average of 3.1%.
While those numbers don't seem drastic, he could also have a bit of luck on his side since the average exit velocity against him and hard-hit rate are 89.5 mph and 43.7%, respectively, both above the league average.
This has increased each year of his career as well, which is a troubling trend.
A career FIP of 4.24 isn’t incredibly poor, but it does hint that a regression to the mean in his overall production could be on the horizon since his career ERA is 3.56.
That could have been what played a part in Washington moving on from him early in the offseason, but when things reached a price they were more comfortable with, they made a move to bring him back.
