Three Reasons Washington Nationals Won’t Spend Much in Free Agency
The Washington Nationals have endured five straight losing seasons since winning their World Series in 2019. The time is now, many believe, to spend.
There are reasons to believe that will be the case. The team has a young core of players that will be under team control for some time. On a few occasions last season the Nationals started seven rookies.
That has led to a small payroll for 2025. Per Spotrac, the Nats have a payroll allocation of $31.6 million. A handful of players are arbitration-eligible. When one includes the deferred payments to Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, Stephen Strasberg and Joey Gallo, the payroll goes up to only $69.3 million.
Logically, the Nationals have plenty of money to spend. But, will they? In a radio interview in September, general manager Mike Rizzo said the team would be “opportunistic” when it comes to spending. He didn’t even rule out a pursuit of free-agent slugger Juan Soto, whom he traded away in 2022.
While there is great reason to be optimistic about Washington for the first time in a while, here are three reasons why the Nationals probably won’t go on a huge spending spree, as in adding $100 million or more in payroll for next season.
It’s a Tight Market for Buyers
MLB Trade Rumors recently listed the Top 50 free agents, with contract projections. Only eight were projected to make north of $100 million. Just one was projected to the Nationals — Pete Alonso (five years, $125 million). First base is a clear need and Alonso would solve it. But he hired Scott Boras as his agent last year for a reason — he’s looking to break the bank. Frankly, that projection seems low.
With a tight market for high-end free agents and a roster of large-market, playoff-ready teams that are ready to spend, the Nationals may have to overspend to acquire one of those players, something Rizzo is likely leery of doing after eating deals such as Scherzer’s and Strasberg’s.
It’s entirely possible he swings and misses on every Top 10 free agent for that reason.
What Can Rizzo Spend?
As a reminder, the Nationals were on the sale market earlier this year before the Lerner family decided to hold onto the team. Previously, Orioles owner David Rubenstein explored the potential for buying the team. Ted Leonsis, a multiple-team owner in the D.C. area, has spoken up about the potential for buying the franchise at some point.
But, for now, the Lerners are still in charge.
So, is that a mandate for Rizzo that allows him to spend or is that an indication that the Lerners are waiting for new market forces before exploring a sale again? And, if it’s the latter, how much payroll do they want to take on?
Signing Soto, for instance, would almost double the current payroll. If the Lerners are committed to keeping the team, then OK. If they’re hoping to sell at some point, a deal like Soto’s could be a problem, depending upon how the team is playing. Rizzo’s mandate is likely about judicious spending and not luring a huge price in free agency.
Are The Nats Really Ready to Win?
Talent development isn’t linear. What works one year may not work the next. The excitement around players like C.J. Abrams, James Wood and Dylan Crews is palpable. But there’s no guarantee they’re ready to take a major leap next season.
That’s the risk in spending too much too soon. Say the Nationals snag a player like Alex Bregman in free agency. What if the talent never truly develops around him? Or, what if the talent is far slower to develop than expected, thus limiting the window that a veteran like Bregman can help the Nats? Or, what if Bregman becomes an injury liability?
Those are all risks Rizzo was to weigh. It isn’t just about spending the money or signing the right player. It’s about the timing, too. The desperation to finally have a winning season shouldn’t override the desire to build a long-term winner.
Rizzo has to be sure that the spend, the talent and the timing is right, and that’s a delicate tightrope to walk.
