Washington Nationals Pitcher Embarks on Big Opportunity With First Spring Start
The Washington Nationals are in major need of better starting pitching if they are going to make good on the potential they have for the 2025 season with a lineup full of young, talented hitters with some productive veterans sprinkled in.
According to the team's Fangraphs depth chart and projections, only one current member of the rotation, lefty MacKenzie Gore, is projected to have an ERA that starts with a three.
The likely weakness of the team's pitching is a big part of why the Nats are projected to have a worse record than they put up last season by PECOTA and ESPN despite an influx of developing young talent and a perception that the franchise should be rounding the corner soon.
But this weak spot also represents a major opportunity for the other members of the rotation, and one big candidate to step up and help Washington keep runs off the board is Jake Irvin, who will toe the rubber in the Nats' first game of spring training against the Houston Astros today.
Irvin has been a full-time member of Washington's rotation for the last two seasons, putting up a 4.61 ERA across 24 starts in 2023 and following that up with 33 starts of 4.41 ERA ball last year.
At first glance, his peripherals do not necessarily suggest a high amount of potential, as he drastically outperformed his xFIP in 2023, but he was also a bit better than his 2024 ERA suggests, with an xFIP of 4.03.
Irvin's Baseball Savant data suggests that he is roughly average in most categories while coming in well below average in swing-and-miss markers with absolutely elite extension.
At six-foot-six, it makes sense that Irvin would generate a lot of extension on his offerings, and we know that release points closer to the hitter make pitches harder to pick up and typically result in more whiffs and chases.
Irvin profiles very much as a classic pitch-to-contact type of arm, but perhaps a tinkering with his pitch mix is all that's needed to unlock a new level for him.
Leaning heavily on his four-seam fastball, curveball and sinker, Irvin threw those three offerings about 90% of the time in 2024. He allowed batting averages against of .204 on the fastball and .226 on the curveball, but hitters feasted on his fastball to the tune of a .325 batting average and .497 slugging rate.
His fourth most common pitch, a cutter, typically meant to dive inside against lefties, was crushed to the tune of a .522 slugging percentage. Irvin threw 191 of his 199 cutters to lefties, and in doing so, he quite played into the inherent platoon advantage they have against him.
There are plenty of starters in the league who have shelved a sinker meant to induce weak contact but proves ultimately ineffective in doing so and relied on a four-seamer and curveball primarily to retire hitters, but it's not optimal to lean so heavily on two pitches.
Fortunately for Irvin, he has a highly effective third pitch in his arsenal, it's just that he rarely uses it. He threw his changeup 108 times in 2024, 93 of those were to lefties, and induced an astonishing 34.9% whiff rate on it. By comparison, his next best pitch (curveball) was only swung at and missed 25.1% of the time.
By throwing his cutter twice as often to left-handed hitters as his changeup, Irvin allowed the group to hit for a .769 OPS against him over the course of last year. He fared much better against righties, allowing a very solid .683 OPS.
Could the key to Irvin's success be as simple as inverting his usage rate of his cutter and changeup against lefty bats? The data suggests it's a possibility, and it will be interesting to see what approach he takes in what will certainly be a short appearance on Saturday.
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Kyle Morton has covered various sports from amateur to professional level athletics. A graduate of Fordham University, Kyle specializes in MLB and NHL coverage while having previous bylines with SB Nation, The Hockey Writers, HighSchoolOT, and Sports World News. He spent time working the beat for the NHL's Carolina Hurricanes and is an avid fan of the NHL, MLB, NFL and college basketball. Enjoys the outdoors and hiking in his free time away from sports.