Washington Nationals’ Power Ambitions May be Doomed by Christian Walker Deal
The Washington Nationals have plenty of money to spend. They should be smart about how they spend it. But, the payroll room is there.
One shouldn’t take the $9 million given to pitcher Michael Soroka recently as a sign that the Nats are trying to be cheap. Soroka is coming off significant injury issues and a season with the awful Chicago White Sox. That’s a budget buy for Washington, one they could have made if their payroll was $50 million or $150 million.
No, the portent of potential doom is actually the Christian Walker contract, which the Houston Astros got done on Friday.
Walker is a quality first baseman, but he is by no means the top player on the market at the position. He is a 33-year-old power hitter who had a career-high 36 home runs in 2022 and has seen that number come down each season. He hammered 26 a season ago.
Now, Washington will take 26 home runs from a corner infielder. The Nationals’ home run leader last season was C.J. Abrams with 20. They’re craving power.
But, before his three-season binge of 95 home runs from 2022-24, Walker hit just 41 home runs from 2014-21, during which he was only an everyday player in 2019 and 2020.
How much should a team spend on that? Well, the Astros decided $20 million was fair.
Houston and Walker agreed to a three-year deal worth $60 million.
Now, who knows what the Nationals might have offered Walker, assuming they spoke to him. Perhaps Walker’s desire was to play for a team closer to contending. After all, the Astros haven’t missed the playoffs since 2016.
But, it’s a market-setter and that’s the problem for the Nationals. There aren’t many first base options left on the free agent market and they’re going to be more expensive than Walker. His deal may have made a couple of players a little richer.
Take Pete Alonso, the top first base target on the market. He would make perfect sense for Washington. But he’s going to make more money and Walker’s deal helps him. So do other factors.
Alonso is younger (30 years old). He’s been far more productive (226 home runs in six seasons). He’s also been consistently productive and highly durable.
Before free agency starter, MLB Trade Rumors projected Alonso would make $125 million over five years. It seems stunning to think that Alonso would sign that sort of a deal now. If Walker’s bat is worth $20 million per year, surely Alonso’s is worth $30 million?
Alex Bregman could sign with the Nats as a third baseman. With the Astros signing Walker, he’s likely out the door, too. The Athletic projected him at seven years, $185 million. That’s $26.4 million per year. Walker’s deal probably boosts his value a bit, too.
Perhaps it will simply be too hard to lure a player like Alonso or Bregman to Washington. The team hasn’t had a winning season in five years and while the Nationals have promising young talent, a veteran free agent would have to reconcile the money with the time it will take for it all to come together.
Perhaps no amount of money will convince a free agent like Alonso or Bregman to join the Nationals. But Walker’s deal certainly doesn’t help.
