Washington Nationals Rotation Expectations Collide with Unkind Analytics
The Washington Nationals are entering spring clearly knowing they're still in a rebuilding phase but with enhanced expectations as their young players take starring roles.
Rebuilding is all about player development, and the Nationals have done plenty of that the past few years.
Can MacKenzie Gore break through and become a Top 10 pitcher? Will a few gems be unearthed from the many trades that have restocked the farm system?
It’s important to note that the Nationals rank as one of the worst defensive infields in Major League Baseball. A strong defense is a pitcher’s best friend, and the young pitchers who will be given opportunities could greatly benefit from improved defensive support, especially when pitching to contact.
In an article for The Athletic, Eno Sarris ranked the Nationals’ projected rotation, noting that only three pitchers fell within the top 200 in metrics such as Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+.
While pitchers are all taught balance throughout a repeatable delivery, metrics such as Stuff+, Location+ and Pitching+ consider a pitcher’s uniqueness.
Certain pitchers have a different arm slot or release points, while others have great extension – releasing the pitch closer to the plate. Additionally, a few pitchers utilize a cross-body release point or successfully hide the ball from hitters.
The introduction of analytics to pitching has revolutionized the craft, incorporating factors like spin rate, maximum effort, measured movement and precise location.
Rankings below were gathered by Sarris from multiple analytics and metrics.
MacKenzie Gore
Rank 72, Stuff+103, Location+ 100, Pitching + 105, Health 88%, Proj.IP 176, ppERA 4.18, ppK% 24.0%
MacKenzie Gore, ranked 72nd overall, is the closest thing the Nationals have to an ace. The stuff is there. His four-seam sits easy at 96 mph. He pitches to both sides of the plate. Although his 2024 numbers do not fully showcase his talent, his ability to record 181 strikeouts in 166.1 innings pitched indicates he can keep his whiff rate high.
Gore will still be 25 years old when the season begins, meaning he has time to develop. Left-handed pitchers often take a bit longer to adjust to Major League Baseball.
The ball comes out of his athletic drop and drive delivery quite easily. His 11 to 5 curveball is his dominant pitch. He also throws a slider to lefties and righties, but his plus changeup is displayed to righties.
Command is always an issue for young pitchers. It’s not always judged by walks but missing the location with too much plate.
Great expectations have been placed on Gore. Since the team is rebuilding, it’s essential for him to relax and trust his talent.
Jake Irvin
Rank 136, Stuff+100, Location+ 102, Pitching + 99, Health 91%, Proj.IP 136, ppERA 4.41, ppK% 19.3%
Jake Irvin is currently slotted in the number two spot in the rotation. In 2024, he recorded a 4.41 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP, striking out 156 hitters in 187.2 innings pitched.
At 6-6 and 234 pounds, he throws downhill, featuring his heavy sinker that sits around 93mph. He also features good movement on his four-seam fastball, which he tends to throw more frequently against left-handed hitters. Irvin employs both a changeup and a curveball to adjust speeds.
It is difficult for a guy who pitches to contact to do so confidently with a lousy infield defense, which includes his own five errors in 2024.
His overall stuff slots better at the backend of the rotation, where he could eat innings.
Michael Soroka
Rank ***, Stuff+ **, Location+ ***, Pitching + **, Health **%, Proj.IP **, ppERA ***, ppK% ***%
Michael Soroka signed a one-year $9 million contract with Washington last December. He is penciled into the middle rotation to eat some innings and provide veteran leadership to a young, developing rotation. He was not included in the rankings.
Soroka was also interested in returning to the rotation after pitching primarily out of the bullpen for the Chicago White Sox in 2024.
He missed the entirety of the 2022 and 2023 seasons due to complications from a torn Achilles tendon but has shown signs of increased velocity after making mechanical adjustments.
Last season, he threw more sliders than four-seam fastballs, likely due to his bullpen role. Soroka can be expected to throw strikes and provide innings, working in the low 90s while changing speeds effectively.
DJ Herz
Rank 128, Stuff+ 99, Location+ 92, Pitching + 90, Health 85%, Proj.IP 136, ppERA 4.36, ppK% 23.4%
DJ Herz will be starting in the rotation. He had a successful debut with the Nationals, posting a 4.16 ERA while striking out 106 hitters in 88.2 innings pitched.
Herz sits at 93 mph with a four-seam fastball, but he also has a plus changeup to keep both righties and lefties off balance. Herz pitches from the third base side of the rubber, then crosses his landing spot to the first base side, effectively hiding the baseball and complicating matters for left-handed hitters.
Herz will likely continue as a starter but may also be a strong candidate for roles in the seventh or eighth inning, especially as his slider becomes an effective pitch against left-handed hitters.
Trevor Williams
Rank **, Stuff+ **, Location+ ***, Pitching + ***, Health **% Proj.IP ***, ppERA ***, ppK% ***%
Trevor Williams will battle Mitchell Parker, Shinnosuke Ogasawara and possibly Cade Cavalli for the fifth spot in the rotation. There is also some talk that the Nats will begin the season with a six-man rotation. His analytics were not included in the rankings.
In 2024, Williams posted good numbers: he made 13 starts, posted a 2.03 ERA, and maintained a 1.04 WHIP. But he missed most of the season due to an injury.
Willimas throws from a 2:30 arm slot, which gives his four-seam fastball good run. He features a plus changeup that has serious movement away from lefties. He also has a slider/sweeper that tends to be loopy.
His ability to get left-handed hitters out is a good sign to continue starting.
Note that this rotation will likely change throughout the season as the team continues to focus on developing pitchers for the future.
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I am a lifelong sports fan with a deep passion for Wisconsin sports. Born and raised in Milwaukee, I have always lived in this sports-crazed city and state. With over 25 years of experience coaching baseball and football, as well as a background in business, I have gained invaluable life lessons from my time playing these sports through college. I love engaging in daily banter with fellow sports enthusiasts, approaching each game as if it were a life-or-death experience, because for many fans, it truly can feel that way. Having previously written for OnMilwaukee.com, I’ve been sitting in the bullpen, waiting for the call to once again share my old-school views on the daily sports grind.