NLCS Preview: Five Key Questions for Dodgers vs. Mets

Shohei Ohtani may be the star attraction, but the bullpens look likely to be the x-factors in the National League Championship Series.

The Mets will have their hands full in trying to contain Ohtani. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

The last time the Dodgers saw the Mets, New York gave up seven unanswered runs in the final two innings, Jorge Lopez threw his glove into the stands and Francisco Lindor called a players-only meeting after the game. That was May 29. That was rock bottom. The Mets were 22–33, a depth from which only the 1974 Pirates and 2005 Astros recovered to make the playoffs.

Now they meet in the National League Championship Series and the team Los Angeles is reintroduced to is the best team in baseball over these five months (72-42). The Mets are not a hot team. They are a team loaded with veterans who have found its way with a solid rotation and a dangerous rally-oriented offense.

Given the Dodgers’ high-end talent and the Mets’ offensive confidence that mirrors that of the 2023 Texas Rangers, this should be a long series. Here are the key questions entering the NLCS:

Who will face Shohei Ohtani in a big spot?

Since Sept. 1, Ohtani is hitting .600 with runners in scoring position (18-for-30). The Padres used Tanner Scott four times in five NLDS games, and the lefty held Ohtani hitless. The Mets don’t have that true power matchup lefthander.

New York’s best left-handed relief option is David Peterson, who has emerged as a key troubleshooter for manager Carlos Mendoza. But Peterson is a bulk reliever, which means if he needs to go multiple innings in Game 1 behind Kodai Senga, you don’t have him for Game 2.

We’ve seen Mendoza in the NLDS go to closer Edwin Díaz as early as the seventh inning to attack the top of a lineup.

How will the Mets pitch Ohtani?

Ohtani is a much more dangerous hitter on pitches up than down. There was a point during the season when Dodgers manager Dave Roberts wanted Ohtani to take all pitches down, even if they were strikes, and wait for something up.

The Mets know to stay below The Ohtani Line, an imaginary line that defines his power. It’s two feet off the ground. Keep the ball below The Ohtani Line and you’re good. Ohtani is 0-for-6 this postseason on pitches below The Ohtani Line.

The same pattern during the regular season is playing out in the postseason.

Padres’ NLDS Pitches to Ohtani Below The Ohtani Line

Sports Illustrated

Ohtani Batting Average by Height

	24” & Below	Above
2024 NLDS	.000	.286
2024 Regular Season	.239	.323

Ohtani Slugging by Height, 2024 (Includes Postseason)

	HR	Avg.	SLG
Two Feet and Lower	5	.230	.391
Above	48	.326	.717*

*2nd highest in MLB (Aaron Judge .812)

Can Mets pitchers get Dodgers hitters to chase?

The Mets liked the matchup against Philadelphia from a game-planning perspective. They knew the Phillies chased, and they turned the Phillies’ aggressiveness against them with a ton of secondary pitches down in the zone.

That same strategy is difficult to deploy against the Dodgers. They had the third lowest chase rate during the regular season (29.1%, behind only the Brewers and Yankees). But Los Angeles did chase against San Diego (35.2%) and the Mets are loaded with starters who can get those chase swings (Senga on his forkball, Sean Manaea on his sweeper and change, Jose Quintana on his change and Luis Severino on his hard sweeper).

Can the Dodgers continue to ride their power bullpen?

The injury to lefthander Alex Vesia was a big one, removing a key option against Brandon Nimmo. But the firepower in that bullpen is deep—and it needs to be without much length from the Los Angeles starters.

The Dodgers figure to have bullpen games in Game 3 and 7 and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 5, a pitcher who hasn’t gone past five innings since June 7. There is a boatload of outs for this bullpen to pick up, but that’s how the Dodger roll.

Roberts has pulled his starting pitcher before 100 pitches and six innings in 20 consecutive postseason games. Dodger starters are 3–10 in their last 24 postseason games. The relievers are 7–4 in that same span. Their path to victory is through the bullpen.

Can the Mets hit the Dodgers’ velocity?

No team has thrown more fastballs (54.2%) this postseason than the Dodgers (four-seamers and sinkers). Only Milwaukee has a higher average velocity this month than Los Angeles (95.8). The Mets have hit .240 against fastballs, below league average.

The key for New York will be to maintain their pass-the-baton approach at the plate. The Mets have been expert at situational hitting, including .308 with runners in scoring position. Nimmo, Starling Marte and Jose Iglesias have been especially adept at shortening their swings to punch hits the other way in big spots.

Mets' Postseason Hitting by Direction

	H	Avg.
Opposite	13*	.310
Middle	21*	.313
Pull	22*	.400

*Leads all playoff teams

How bad is Freddie Freeman’s ankle?

It’s still an issue. Freeman had no extra base hits or walks in the NLDS. He is hitting without a stable lower half, and he has limited range at first base. Jurickson Profar did try a bunt on Freeman in NLDS Game 5 but pulled it foul. Roberts waited one inning too long to remove Freeman with a lead in a close game and got away with it.

The Mets don’t have an expert bunter. Marte will bunt, but typically to the left side with a runner on second. Jeff McNeil is their best bunter to the right side.

What can the Mets expect from Edwin Diaz?

His command and bite on the slider are off. Without a pen as deep as the Dodgers, the Mets need him to get more than three outs in spots to win this series. The ask has been big this month. Diaz is averaging 30.5 pitches in his past six appearances. In his 52 appearances before that, he averaged 15.7.