Baltimore Orioles Ace Lands His Megadeal in Latest Contract Prediction

The Baltimore Orioles ace landing this type of predicted contract should help the team keep him around.

Aug 22, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) greeted by catcher Adley Rutschman (35) at the end of the third inning against the Houston Astros at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. / Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

It remains uncertain how much Corbin Burnes of the Baltimore Orioles will land in free agency. The right-hander was again a top-five pitcher in baseball, finishing top eight in Cy Young Award voting for the fifth consecutive year.

While the Orioles need to keep the right-hander around, the expectation is for him to be paid like one of the top pitchers, if not the top pitcher, in baseball.

Baltimore should do whatever is needed to keep him around, as long as the price doesn't get too outrageous.

Regarding contracts, it's often more important to consider the AAV than the full amount of money. If Burnes were to sign a $275 million contract for 10 years, that would benefit the Orioles more than him signing a seven-year deal for $250 million.

In the latest contract prediction from Jim Bowden of The Athletic, Burnes landed a seven-year, $247 million, which would be just about $35 million per season.

"This will be the fifth consecutive year that Corbin Burnes finishes in the top eight in Cy Young Award voting. Burnes went 15-9 with 181 strikeouts and 1.096 WHIP in his first season in the American League after the Orioles traded for him in February. He’s pitched more than 190 innings three years in a row and is 60-36 with a 3.19 ERA over 199 games (138 starts) in his career. He will be — and should be — the most sought-after free-agent pitcher this offseason."

$35 million per year for a pitcher almost guaranteed to throw over 175.0 innings at an elite level is more than fair to pay.

If there's one thing Burnes has been elite at, it's his ability to stay on the mound. He's thrown in at least 193 2/3 innings in each of the past three campaigns, perhaps the most impressive part of his game.

Even from Baltimore's perspective, despite being a team that hasn't handed out these types of contracts in the past, they won't find a comparable arm to Burnes for a much better price unless they luck into Roki Sasaki if he gets posted.

The one thing to watch out for here is a big market team coming in with an offer that just wouldn't make sense to match. If a ball club offers him $300-plus million in the winter, it's something the Orioles would likely pass on.

If that's the case, there has to be a plan to replace him.