Baltimore Orioles Ace Predicted to 'Surely' Get Over $200 Million Contract

The Baltimore Orioles have no reason not to give their ace the contract he's seeking.

Aug 10, 2024; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. / Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

While the focus for the Baltimore Orioles right now is winning the division as they head into the postseason, there's a massive situation waiting for them in the next few months. Corbin Burnes hits free agency, and as expected when they traded for him a year ago, he'll be the most sought-after pitcher on the free agency market. 

His contract is tough to predict for several reasons. In terms of production, there aren't many better arms in Major League Baseball. However, Burnes doesn't have age on his side. He'll be 30 years old at the start of free agency, and handing him a massive contract raises some concerns from the Orioles' perspective or any other team that decides to do so. 

Still, it feels safe to say that he'll get $200-plus million, at the minimum. One could even argue that Burnes is looking at more than $300 million, depending on the team that offers him. 

Baltimore doesn't have any reason not to sign him. If they want to compete for a World Series, which is what it seems like, keeping their ace around makes the most sense.

Factor that in with some of the injuries their rotation has dealt with during 2024, and it makes even more sense to bring him back. Remember, when they traded for him last offseason, it was because they needed an ace-caliber arm. Losing him in the offseason would cause them to have to go out and find another pitcher of his caliber, and there aren't many of those around baseball. 

So, how much can the Orioles expect to pay him? Kiley McDaniel of ESPN took a guess, predicting that Burnes will "surely" receive over $200 million.

"Burnes was initially in the next tier, but I think it makes more sense to separate him as he might make $100 million more than those players. There aren't a ton of comps to point to for Burnes. 

"Due to his age (he turns 30 in October), he is very unlikely to get as much as the Los Angeles Dodgers gave to then-25-year-old Yoshinobu Yamamoto last winter (12 years, $325 million). Burnes is better than Aaron Nola, who landed the second-biggest pitcher contract last winter (seven years, $172 million)."

If Baltimore could find a way to land him for around $200 million, it'd be perfect. That's a lot of money to give to one pitcher, but it's not as much as some have predicted.

He's been as good as advertised during his first season with the Orioles, posting a 3.10 ERA and striking out 144 in 153 2/3 innings. He has a decent chance to win the Cy Young Award, the second time he'd accomplished that in his career.