Baltimore Orioles Ace Projected To Land Near-Historic Contract in Free Agency

The Baltimore Orioles are going to have to pony up a lot of money if they want to retain their star pitcher.

Aug 10, 2024; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. / Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

The Baltimore Orioles are going to be hard-pressed to retain some of their free agents hitting the market this offseason, especially starting pitcher Corbin Burnes.

The team’s ace did nothing to diminish his value throughout his first season with the franchise, pitching like the front of the rotation player they thought they were getting from the Milwaukee Brewers.

He made 32 starts, throwing 194.1 innings and recording a stellar 2.92 ERA. With a record of 15-9 and 181 strikeouts, he has set himself up for a massive payday this winter.

How big of a contract could be heading his way?

As shared by Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, the star pitcher could approach historic money. His current projection is a seven-year, $225 million contract with an AAV of $32.1 million.

“This is a typical deal in which the team that signs him will be hoping to win the first half of the contract, ideally with deep playoff runs and a ring, then wishing for health on the back half of the contract -- but Burnes does appear to be aging better than the average nine-figure pitcher. He's widely expected to clear $200 million with Stephen Strasburg's $245 million deal, which included significant deferrals, before the 2020 season (also represented by Scott Boras, like Burnes is) as the stretch goal. Surpassing that mark would give Burnes the third-biggest pitcher guarantee ever (behind Gerrit Cole and Yamamoto),” the MLB expert wrote.

The only knock against Burnes is that he is going to be 30 when th 2025 campaign starts. The dip in strikeout percentage will raise some eyebrows, but he gets the job done.

As McDaniel noted, he has the track record that removes some of the risks normally attached to signing a player of his age to a long-term deal.

He is durable, making at least 28 starts in four straight seasons. The bright lights of the playoffs didn’t phase him, as he became the first starter since Stephen Strasburg with the Washington Nationals in 2019 to throw a pitch in the ninth inning of a postseason game.

As the top free agent starting pitcher on the market, it is easy to envision a bidding war starting over his services. Especially with the New York Mets and their deep pockets being connected to him.

Alas, given the state of their pitching, the Orioles need to bite that bullet. It was a weakness with Burnes in the mix; imagine the dire circumstances they would face without him.