Baltimore Orioles All-Star Ace Seen as Potential Free-Agent Bust

If seems odd given this pitcher's history, but some believe it's possible the Baltimore Orioles ace free agent could be a bust relative to his upcoming deal.

Oct 1, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) throws a pitch against the Kansas City Royals in the first inning in game one of the Wild Card round for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

The Baltimore Orioles are heading into free agency with some big decisions to make regarding their roster. 

It was another successful season for the Orioles in 2024, as they won over 90 games and reached the playoffs for the second straight season. However, their playoff stint was short-lived, as they were swept in the American League Wild Card Round. 

Even though it was another solid regular season, expectations have gone up for Baltimore with their recent success. Last offseason, the Orioles made a big splash in the trade market, as they traded for Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers. 

While Burnes was great for Baltimore, it didn’t help them make it further in the postseason. Now, their ace will hit free agency as the best starting pitcher available and could be set to receive a contract over $200 million. 

Even though the right-hander has been an excellent pitcher so far, Zachary D. Rymer of Bleacher Report wrote about why Burnes could end up being a bust of a signing. Why? Wll, it links back to New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, who Rymer writes was coming off a career season when he signed his initial deal with the Yankees.

Rymer is concerned about Burnes' ability to strike hitters out relative to his high a few years ago. He points to Burnes' declining strikeout rate.

“Whereas it was once in the 98th percentile in 2021, his whiff rate was in the 69th percentile in 2023 and only improved to the 74th percentile this year. Per Stuff+, the quality of his pitches is also declining. To be sure, Burnes should still have a few more good years in him. But any team that signs him hoping the 2021 version still exists in some form will likely be disappointed.”

While Burnes had an excellent 2024 campaign with a 15-9 record and a 2.92 ERA, the decrease in his strikeout rate raises some potential concerns. At 30 years old, it would be surprising if the right-hander started to struggle right away. But the decrease in his swing and miss stuff could be an indication that a decline will happen eventually. 

Considering he will be receiving a massive long-term deal, the Orioles might be scared off by the drop in strikeouts. Since they haven't been big spenders, mostly due to their previous ownership, losing their ace in free agency certainly seems like a possibility. New owner David Rubenstein could change that.

Burnes should still be pitching at a high level for the next couple of years and could certainly be the reason why the team who signs him wins a World Series. However, there might be some early signs of decline which could lead to bust potential later in his contract.