Baltimore Orioles Burnes Replacement Has Much Cheaper Contract in Latest Prediction

Corbin Burnes potential price will have to be something the Baltimore Orioles consider.

Jul 4, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) pitches to the Seattle Mariners during the first inning at T-Mobile Park. / Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

If the Baltimore Orioles lose Corbin Burnes in free agency, their focus will instantly turn to replacing him.

Despite that being an impossible task unless they landed about three to five pitchers in the world, it's clear the Orioles will have a tough time doing as such.

But on a base level, that doesn't mean Baltimore would be a worse team without him. The front office has other arms they could pursue, which would ultimately determine if they're a better team on paper entering 2025.

They've been rumored to have interest in a few free agent pitchers, including left-hander Max Fried.

Fried has been among the top pitchers in baseball over the past few seasons and if it weren't for his injuries, he'd likely be looking at a contract around $200 million.

Instead, those injuries will likely hurt his deal.

Jim Bowden of The Athletic predicted him to sign a six-year, $174 million contract, which would still be a handsome deal for the ace.

"Max Fried has a career record of 73-36 with a 3.07 ERA and 3.29 FIP. He’s made two All-Star teams, won two Gold Glove awards and finished top-five in the Cy Young Award voting twice. He’s made 28 to 30 starts in three of the last four seasons but has dealt with injuries, including left forearm neuritis each of the last two years. Therefore, his medical reports will determine whether he lands a market-rate deal or has to take a lesser contract. The Braves have tried over the last several years to extend Fried to no avail. They’ll keep trying this offseason and wait to see how he fares in the market, but they definitely want him back."

While Fried hasn't been as dominant as Burnes over his career, Bowden predicted the Orioles free agent will land a seven-year, $247 million deal.

That's a massive price difference.

Perhaps Baltimore doesn't view it as that big of a deal. For what it's worth, about $6 million AAV wouldn't be something the front office should be worried about handing out.

They could value that $6 million per season, as that adds up. However, regarding AAV, they likely won't find a player who could bring them value for just $6 million per campaign if they wanted to add Fried and spend the other money elsewhere.

The front office will need to have an interesting discussion about this decision, as it could significantly affect the Orioles' future.