Baltimore Orioles Burnes Replacement Lands Cheap Short-Term Deal in Prediction

The Baltimore Orioles could replace Corbin Burnes with a former Cy Young Award winner.

Aug 10, 2024; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. / Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

Statistically speaking, the Baltimore Orioles shouldn't expect to find a pitcher of Corbin Burnes' status if they lose him.

He's been among the best arms in Major League Baseball over the past five seasons and has all the stuff in his arsenal to continue doing so.

Since 2020, his first year as a starter, the right-hander has struck out 946 hitters in 816 2/3 innings. While his strikeout numbers were down a bit in 2024, that was, in large part, due to a few rough outings after the All-Star break.

On top of his strikeout numbers, Burnes has posted a 2.88 ERA, 142 ERA+, and 1.02 WHIP. Simply put, those are Hall of Fame caliber numbers during a five-year stretch.

While those are as good as it gets, a few pitchers almost rival them. Of those potential options is Shane Bieber.

Since 2019, Bieber has posted a 3.02 ERA, 142 ERA+. 1.08 WHIP, and has struck out 840 hitters. The issue, however, is that he's only thrown in 728 1/3 innings in that span.

Injuries haven't been on Bieber's side, but if the Orioles want to take a chance on a guy, why not do that with him?

It's a fair suggestion, especially considering his latest contract prediction. Tim Britton of The Athletic has Bieber landing a two-year, $30 million deal.

"Bieber appeared to be back to his Cy Young-winning form by beginning the season with a 20-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 12 scoreless innings, but that came to a screeching halt with Tommy John surgery in mid-April. His rehab will likely stretch into next season, so Bieber might have to choose between a short-term deal driven by incentives or a longer-term deal for a discounted annual salary. Interested suitors will have to decide how much those two great April starts canceled out what had been a multi-year deadline in which Bieber’s strikeout rate plummeted from 41 percent in 2020 to 20 percent in 2023. At his healthiest, Bieber is one of baseball’s elite starters, but no one can be certain that version still exists."

When the right-hander is at his best, Baltimore should expect good things from him. Unfortunately, that's a tough ask due to the numerous injuries.

Again, replacing Burnes would be tough, maybe even impossible. However, with Bieber potentially only landing $15 million AAV, it's about as good of a risk as the Orioles could take.

Even if he isn't the same caliber arm he once was and his numbers slightly drop, that'd be a steal of a price.