Baltimore Orioles Could Lose Pitching Prospect with Tyler Wells-Like Upside

The Baltimore Orioles left one of their Top 30 prospects available for selection in next month’s Rule 5 Draft.

May 14, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Baltimore Orioles cap and glove sits in dugout in the second inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

The Baltimore Orioles were faced with several key decisions at the Rule 5 draft roster deadline earlier this month. One of them was right-handed pitcher Alex Pham.

To protect him, the O’s needed to move him to the 40-man roster. Baltimore opted not to, and now he is available to teams at next month’s Rule 5 draft during the winter meetings in Dallas.

And, it’s possible the Orioles could lose him. Baseball America recently profiled him as a player that could be selected next month.

Baltimore selected him in the 19th round of the 2021 MLB draft out of San Francisco. The 25-year-old has gotten to Double-A with the O’s and is coming off his best season in the minors.

He spent the whole season with Bowie and finished 7-4 with a 4.24 ERA in 27 games, all starts. He struck out 138 and walked 50 in 119 innings. Notably, he had a 1.24 WHIP and allowed hitters to bat .221 against him.

In 2023 he did have a better ERA (2.57), WHIP (1.02) and opponent batting average (.182), but he went 3-5. Still, his numbers the past two seasons have been consistent regardless of the affiliate. It’s been enough to make him one of the O’s Top 30 prospects this offseason.

While he’s been a starter in the minors, Baseball America’s evaluators see him as someone who can swing into the bullpen because he may have untapped velocity in his fastball.

His fastball has a baseline of 91-93 mph but the vertical break makes it harder to hit. He has touched 96 mph and evaluators indicated that a move to the bullpen might allow him to increase that velocity.

Because he’s a starter, he has a solid assortment of pitches, including a curveball, cutter and sweeper-slider.

The site compared him another pitchers in a category of swingman starters that compares to Orioles starter Tyler Wells. He started as a reliever for the O’s in 2021 before he moved into a full-time starter role. Pham could see a similar track.

Baltimore may have left him exposed because he hasn’t pitched above Double-A and may not be seen by other teams as a pitcher that can help them next season. Teams do not have to pick a player in the Rule 5 draft, so if they pass on Pham the O’s can keep him.  

Players signed at age 18 or younger need to be added to their club's 40-Man roster within five seasons or they become eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. Players who signed at age 19 or older need to be protected within four seasons.

If the Orioles lose a player in the draft, the team that selects that player owes Baltimore $100,000 and must put that player on their 26-man roster. If at any time the player is released the next season, he must be placed on outright waivers in order to be removed from the 26-man roster. Should the player clear waivers, he must be offered back to Baltimore for $50,000.